South Africa’s Chicken Conundrum: Why Your Festive Feast Costs More
Despite robust demand heading into the holiday season, South African consumers are facing higher poultry prices. This isn’t simply a seasonal spike. A complex interplay of factors – from global disease outbreaks to import duties – is squeezing household budgets, even as US exporters eye the market. The situation highlights the fragility of food security and the impact of international trade dynamics on everyday life.
The Ripple Effect of Global Poultry Crises
The recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak and the lingering effects of the 2023 avian influenza crisis are key drivers of rising meat prices. According to FNB Commercial’s senior agricultural economist, Paul Makube, meat prices in November 2025 were 12.2% higher year-on-year, the largest jump since January 2018. This contributed to an overall food inflation rate of 4.4% for the year. While global food prices are beginning to ease – the UN reported a 2% drop compared to the previous year – South Africa isn’t benefiting equally.
US Exporters and the Duty Dilemma
Interestingly, US poultry exporters are actively seeking greater access to the South African market. Greg Tyler, CEO of the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council (USAPEEC), emphasizes that exports are driven by price competitiveness. However, high import duties remain a significant barrier. “US trading companies facilitate shipments only when the landed price… is competitive,” Tyler stated. These duties are ultimately passed on to consumers, disproportionately affecting lower-income households who rely on affordable protein sources like chicken.
Currently, US tariffs on South African goods haven’t directly impacted the poultry tariff rate quota (TRQ), which operates on an annual cycle (April 1 to March 31). The TRQ is nearing its conclusion (March 31, 2026), and the future of this trade arrangement remains uncertain, pending directives from the South African government.
Shifting Export Patterns: Where is South Africa Falling Behind?
Recent data from USAPEEC’s Q3 2024 report reveals a concerning trend: while US poultry exports increased to several countries, exports to South Africa decreased significantly. This suggests a loss of market share, likely due to the aforementioned duty concerns and potentially, increased competition from other exporting nations. Other countries experiencing export declines included Congo-Brazzaville, Haiti, and Vietnam.
What Kind of Chicken Are We Talking About?
US exports to South Africa aren’t limited to whole birds. Demand centers around specific cuts favored by South African consumers, including chicken offal (gizzards and livers), thighs, drumsticks, and leg quarters. Turkey wings and drumsticks are also supplied when prices are favorable, but current pricing makes them less competitive. This targeted approach demonstrates an understanding of local preferences, but price remains the ultimate deciding factor.
Beyond Poultry: The Broader Food Security Picture
The situation with poultry is a microcosm of broader food security challenges. Foot-and-mouth disease, supply chain disruptions, and global economic factors all contribute to price volatility. While a seasonal drop in demand after the festive season might offer temporary relief, as Makube suggests, long-term solutions require a multi-faceted approach. This includes investing in local agricultural infrastructure, diversifying import sources, and negotiating favorable trade agreements.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why are chicken prices so high in South Africa?
Several factors contribute to high chicken prices, including foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, avian influenza, global supply chain issues, and high import duties on US poultry.
Will chicken prices go down in 2026?
There may be some relief after the festive season as demand typically decreases. However, long-term price stability depends on addressing underlying issues like disease outbreaks and trade barriers.
What is the TRQ and how does it affect poultry imports?
The Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) is an annual agreement that sets a limit on the amount of poultry that can be imported into South Africa at a reduced tariff rate. It runs from April 1 to March 31 each year.
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