Global Soybean and Wheat Markets Shift: USDA’s February WASDE Report Reveals Key Trends
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its February 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on February 10th, sending ripples through global agricultural markets. The report highlights significant adjustments to soybean and wheat production forecasts, particularly in South America, and anticipates shifts in trade patterns, notably involving China.
Brazil’s Soybean Production Reaches Record High
The USDA has increased its forecast for Brazil’s soybean production to a record 180 million tons for the 2025/26 season, up from 178 million tons in January. This revision is attributed to updated acreage estimates from Brazilian authorities and favorable weather conditions during the growing period. Paraguay’s soybean production forecast was also raised, increasing by 500,000 tons to 11.5 million tons due to improved weather.
Despite the positive outlook for Brazil and Paraguay, Argentina’s soybean harvest remains unchanged at 48.5 million tons, contrary to market expectations of a slight downward revision.
China’s Demand and Shifting Trade Dynamics
The report suggests China is considering increasing soybean purchases from the United States. This potential shift could reduce U.S. Soybean exports to other countries. The USDA increased its forecast for global soybean ending stocks to 125.51 million tons, largely due to the anticipated record harvest in Brazil.
Pro Tip: Keep a close watch on Chinese import data, as it’s a key indicator of global soybean demand and price movements.
European Union’s Oilseed Market Adjustments
The USDA anticipates higher soybean crushing in Brazil and Paraguay, driven by increasing international demand for soymeal. Soymeal imports to the European Union are expected to rise to 19.45 million tons, approaching the ten-year high of 20.61 million tons seen in the previous year. Still, soymeal is losing ground to rapeseed meal within the EU’s overall oilseed meal demand, a consequence of recent substantial rapeseed harvests.
Wheat Market: Rising Global Stocks and Production
The WASDE report indicates a potential surplus in the global wheat market. The USDA increased its forecast for U.S. Wheat ending stocks by 130,000 tons to 25.34 million tons, a 9% increase year-over-year and the highest level since the 2019/20 season. Global wheat ending stocks are now projected at 277.51 million tons, a five-year high, boosted by increased stocks in major exporting countries.
Global wheat production is estimated at 841.80 million tons, nearly unchanged from the January forecast. Argentina’s wheat harvest forecast was raised by 300,000 tons to a record 27.8 million tons.
EU Wheat Exports Expected to Decline
International wheat exports for 2025/26 are projected at 221.96 million tons, down from the 2.2 million ton expectation in January. While export forecasts for Canada and Argentina were increased, the USDA lowered its EU export estimate by 1 million tons to 31.5 million tons, citing sluggish overseas business.
Did you grasp? The USDA’s WASDE reports are released monthly and are a crucial resource for agricultural traders, policymakers, and industry stakeholders.
Market Reaction and Future Outlook
Soybean futures in Chicago reacted positively to the WASDE report, with the March contract rising 1.2% to $11.23/bushel (347 Euros/ton). This continues a mid-January uptrend. May 2026 rapeseed futures in Paris remained unchanged at 487.75 Euros/ton, but could gain momentum from the positive soybean market. Wheat prices remained largely stable following the report’s release.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the WASDE report?
A: The WASDE report is a monthly report released by the USDA providing forecasts for the supply and utilize of major agricultural commodities.
Q: Why is the WASDE report crucial?
A: It’s a key indicator of global agricultural market conditions and influences trading decisions.
Q: Where can I find the full WASDE report?
A: The report is available on the USDA website: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report
Q: What factors influence soybean production in Brazil?
A: Acreage estimates and weather conditions are the primary factors influencing Brazil’s soybean production.
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