Venezuela is navigating a precarious new political landscape following a U.S. military intervention that led to the imprisonment of President Nicolás Maduro. The future of Chavismo – the political movement founded by Hugo Chávez – hangs in the balance as interim leader Delcy Rodríguez signals a willingness to cooperate with the United States, including granting “total access” to Venezuela’s oil reserves.
A Shift in Tactics
Chávez, who died in 2013, rose to power in 1998 denouncing the United States as “the empire” and capitalism as “the road to hell.” He pursued a socialist agenda, nationalizing key industries and redistributing wealth. Rodríguez, a long-time disciple of Chávez, has begun to pursue reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment and has released political dissidents. This shift includes a “long and courteous phone conversation” with President Trump, despite the recent U.S. military action and the CIA’s role in Maduro’s capture.
The Fate of Chavismo
Analysts are divided on whether this pragmatic turn signals the end of Chavismo. Some, like historian Enrique Krauze, believe the movement is “in intensive care,” undermined by the U.S. intervention, authoritarianism, economic crisis, and widespread corruption. Others, including political science professor Javier Corrales, argue that the core power structure remains intact, with the military, governors, and key political figures still in place. Despite the changes, Wilson Barrios, a Chavista supporter, insists, “Chavismo is not a fad. It is a lifestyle and a conviction with principles.”
The situation is further complicated by Venezuela’s economic woes, triggered by falling oil prices and U.S. sanctions, which have prompted a quarter of the population to flee the country. As one Venezuelan journalist noted in Time magazine, “Venezuelans are exhausted after 26 years of Chavismo,” and some may be willing to accept U.S. influence as a result.
Looking Ahead
The coming months will likely be defined by negotiations between Venezuela and the United States regarding oil access and potential economic aid. It is possible that Rodríguez will continue to make concessions to secure her position and alleviate the country’s economic crisis. However, hard-line Chavistas may resist further compromises, potentially leading to internal divisions. The extent to which Chavismo can adapt and maintain its core principles while navigating this new reality remains to be seen.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Hugo Chávez’s relationship with the United States?
Hugo Chávez frequently criticized the United States, calling it “the empire” and denouncing its capitalist policies. He also warned of a CIA plot to kill him and steal Venezuela’s oil reserves.
What changes has Delcy Rodríguez made since becoming interim leader?
Delcy Rodríguez has called for reforms to attract foreign investment, freed political dissidents, and engaged in discussions with the United States, including a phone conversation with President Trump and a meeting with the CIA Director.
Is Chavismo likely to disappear?
Analysts are divided. Some believe the movement is in decline, while others argue that its core structure and principles remain strong, even if its identity is shifting.
What does the future hold for Venezuela as it navigates this new era of political and economic uncertainty?
