Victorian Coalition MPs have criticized a pre-election campaign launched by the conservative lobby group Advance as “bizarre,” warning it may cost the Coalition a majority government at next month’s state election. The lobby group dismissed the criticism as “galactically stupid” and rebuked the Coalition for failing to hold a wider lead in the polls.
Advance Launches 20-Seat Campaign and AI Ad
On Monday, Advance will begin campaigning in 20 suburban and regional seats in Victoria currently held by Labor. The group described the push as a trial run for the federal election. Executive director Matthew Sheahan sought member donations last week to finance the Victorian campaign, which is expected to cost about $350,000.
The centerpiece of the campaign is a 60-second AI-generated advertisement featuring the premier, Ben Carroll, alongside his predecessors Jacinta Allan and Daniel Andrews. The video promotes the group’s central message: whoever voters place first on the ballot, they should “put Labor last.” Funding will push the ads to voters via social media, streaming services, mobile billboards, and print.
Did You Know? Advance’s executive director, Matthew Sheahan, outlined in an email to members that the Victorian campaign is expected to cost about $350,000 and serve as a trial run before a campaign against Albanese.
Coalition MPs criticize lobby group strategy
Several Coalition MPs expressed concern that Advance is undercutting their core election message. Coalition candidates have spent months telling voters that the “only way” to defeat Labor is to vote directly for the Coalition. One Coalition MP told Guardian Australia that the lobby group is essentially telling voters the opposite message.
A Liberal MP accused Advance of being “clearly more concerned about the federal campaign” and causing chaos in the state race. Another Liberal source stated that Advance is pursuing its own agenda and that the party does not want their help. Multiple target seats selected by Advance overlap with areas targeted by One Nation, including the ultra-marginal seat of Pakenham, which One Nation Victoria’s leader, Warren Pickering, is contesting alongside Bass, Hastings, Melton, and Yan Yean.
Expert Insight: The friction between the Victorian Coalition and Advance highlights a strategic divergence between state-level electoral arithmetic and national lobby group priorities. While local candidates focus on direct primary votes to secure a majority, external lobby campaigns risk confusing conservative messaging and complicating preference flows in tightly contested marginal seats.
Spokesperson defends campaign strategy using polling data
An Advance spokesperson hit back at the criticism, stating that Coalition MPs displayed a “galactically stupid misunderstanding of both the electoral position they find themselves in and our strategy for the campaign.” Citing public and private polling, the spokesperson noted that 25% to 35% of Coalition and One Nation voters indicated they would preference Labor ahead of each other. The group argued that the Liberals and One Nation could not secure a majority alone while Labor was reliant on preferences.
Electoral analyst Ben Raue noted that Advance’s messaging could hurt the Liberal and National parties. Raue observed that while Advance has an incentive towards “rising tide lifts all boats” which makes sense considering the weakness of the Coalition in federal politics, it is unhelpful to the Victorian Coalition who are trying to hold on to their right flank.
Advance campaigns to put Labor last in targeted seats
What is the main message of Advance’s pre-election campaign?
The core message of Advance’s campaign is that regardless of who voters select first on their ballot, they should “put Labor last.”
How much is Advance spending on the Victorian campaign?
The lobby group’s Victorian campaign is expected to cost about $350,000, funded in part through member donations sought by executive director Matthew Sheahan.
Which specific seats are being targeted by Advance?
Advance is campaigning in 20 suburban and regional seats held by Labor in Victoria, including ultra-marginal seats such as Pakenham, Bass, Hastings, Melton, and Yan Yean.
How will preference flows ultimately impact the outcome in these marginal Victorian seats?
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