The Virginia Cavaliers advanced in the NCAA Tournament on Friday with a win over Wright State, but face a significant challenge in the second round: the sixth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers. Tennessee dominated Miami (OH) with a score of 78-56 in their first-round matchup.
As of today, betting markets list the Cavaliers as slight underdogs, with some offering a virtual pick-em. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:10 pm ET on Sunday.
What to Realize About Tennessee
Tennessee currently ranks 15th in overall KenPom efficiency and 13th defensively. They have a record of 23-11, finishing fifth in the SEC with an 11-7 conference record. Their resume includes wins against Houston, Vanderbilt, and Alabama. Despite losing four of their previous six games entering the tournament, they convincingly defeated Miami (OH) in the first round, holding them to 24.1% shooting from behind the three-point line although shooting 45.0% themselves.
The Volunteers’ strength lies in their frontcourt, where Head Coach Rick Barnes regularly utilizes three players listed between 6-foot-10 and 6-foot-11. Nate Ament, a projected top-five NBA Draft prospect at times, averages over 17 points per game and excels at getting to the free-throw line.
Tennessee also features JP Estrella and Felix Okpara, both known for their rebounding and efficient interior scoring. Estrella averages 10.2 points per game, while Okpara is a member of the 2025-26 SEC all-defensive team and a top-tier rim protector.
Leading the Volunteers in the backcourt is 6-foot-1 point guard Jakobi Gillespie, a three-time all-conference selection in three different leagues. Gillespie plays over 85% of the team’s total minutes, averaging 18.3 points and 5.6 assists per game, and leads the team with 2.1 steals per game.
Tennessee’s profile resembles past Rick Barnes teams: a defensive focus, a strong guard, and excellent rebounding. Though, they struggle with three-point shooting, averaging 33.8% as a team with no player shooting above 40% from beyond the arc.
For Virginia to succeed, a strong shooting performance will be crucial, particularly given their high three-point attempt rate. While rebounding is typically a strength for the Cavaliers, Tennessee prioritizes limiting second-chance opportunities. Jacari White, Sam Lewis, and Malik Thomas will need to perform well to overcome this challenge.
Ball security is also a concern, as the Cavaliers turned the ball over 14 times against Wright State. Tennessee’s defense is designed to disrupt offenses with length and aggressive coverage. Defensively, Thijs De Ridder’s ability to defend Nate Ament will be a key factor.
It remains to be seen whether the game will be a close, low-scoring affair or a more open, high-scoring contest. Virginia has proven capable of succeeding in both scenarios, but capitalizing on transition opportunities will be advantageous against Tennessee.
The Cavaliers are capable of winning this game, but will require a strong performance in multiple key areas.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Tennessee’s record?
Tennessee has a record of 23-11, finishing fifth in the SEC at 11-7.
Who is Tennessee’s leading scorer?
Jakobi Gillespie is Tennessee’s leading scorer, averaging 18.3 points per game.
What is Nate Ament’s free throw rate?
Nate Ament’s free throw rate is 58.6, placing him above the 90th percentile among all Division 1 players.
What factors will be most important for Virginia to advance to the next round?
