The Sun’s Fury: Why a National Space Weather Forecast is Crucial
Powerful disturbances from the sun – known as space weather – pose a growing threat to our increasingly technology-dependent world. From power grids and telecommunications to GPS and satellites, critical infrastructure is vulnerable. Experts are urging for a national space weather forecast to mitigate these risks, particularly in regions like the High North.
Understanding the Solar Threat
Space weather originates from processes on the sun, specifically the constant stream of charged particles known as the solar wind. Occasionally, this wind intensifies into solar storms and geomagnetic storms. Even as these storms create the attractive auroras (Northern and Southern Lights), they can also wreak havoc on technology.
“Space weather is always there in the form of the solar wind streaming out from the sun in all directions. But occasionally, we receive storms,” explains Magnar Gullikstad Johnsen, leader of the Tromsø Geophysical Observatory at UiT The Arctic University of Norway.
Historical Disruptions and Modern Vulnerabilities
The potential for disruption isn’t new. The most powerful space weather events on record occurred in 1859 and 1921, before widespread technological dependence. These events severely impacted the telegraph system. More recently, in 1989, a space storm caused a blackout in Quebec, Canada, leaving 15 million people without power for eight hours. Since 2017, at least nine instances of space weather affecting power transformers have been identified in Norway and Sweden.
Today, the stakes are much higher. Satellites are vulnerable to failure, radio communication and radar systems can be affected, and even offshore drilling operations can experience disruptions. Airlines flying polar routes must consider radiation exposure for crews.
The Potential for Technological Setback
Experts warn that a truly powerful space weather event, which hasn’t occurred since 2003, could set us back years technologically. A major event could cripple power grids, disrupt GPS systems used for navigation and timing, disable satellite fleets, and severely impact communication networks. Systems reliant on precise timing, such as railways and financial systems, would also be at risk.
Arctic Vulnerability and National Security
The Arctic region is particularly vulnerable. It’s a focal point for geopolitical activity and experiences the most frequent and intense space weather effects. The technology used for civil and military safety in the Arctic is susceptible to disruption.
“Situational awareness is a key word for Norwegian presence in the Arctic. We must use technology that is vulnerable to space weather to achieve this. It is therefore vital to have situational awareness of the interaction between the sun and the Earth,” says Johnsen.
The Push for a National Forecast
Currently, space weather alerts are issued by the Tromsø Geophysical Observatory. However, there’s a strong push for a dedicated national space weather warning service, to be established in collaboration with the Meteorological Institute and the Mapping Authority, potentially by 2027.
“Extremely important. If we can predict space storms, it gives operators the opportunity to implement measures and mobilize their contingency organizations,” Johnsen emphasizes.
A national service would not only provide warnings but also assist actors understand and troubleshoot system failures, determining whether they are caused by intentional jamming or space weather events.
“There is a national security aspect to this which means that one cannot simply outsource everything to the USA, the EU, or private companies.”
The Role of Solar Research
The Rosseland Centre for Solar Physics (RoCS) at the University of Oslo plays a vital role in understanding the sun’s magnetic field and its potential for violent explosions. This research is crucial for improving space weather forecasting capabilities.
FAQ
What is space weather? Space weather refers to the dynamic conditions in space caused by the sun and its impact on Earth’s environment.
Why is space weather a threat? It can disrupt or destroy ground- and space-based infrastructure, including power grids, satellites, and communication systems.
What is a coronal mass ejection (CME)? A CME is a large cloud of plasma hurled into space from the sun, which can disrupt Earth’s magnetic field if directed towards us.
When will a national space weather forecast be available in Norway? A proposal has been submitted to the national budget, with hopes of establishing a service in 2027.
What can I do to prepare for space weather events? While individual preparedness is limited, supporting the development of national forecasting capabilities is crucial.
Did you know? The energy released from a powerful solar explosion can be equivalent to Norway’s current electricity consumption for millions of years.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about space weather conditions through resources like the Tromsø Geophysical Observatory and the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in the US.
Wish to learn more about the sun and its impact on Earth? Explore the research conducted at the Rosseland Centre for Solar Physics here.
