The Shifting Sands of Global Peace: Trends for a More Turbulent Future
2025 proved a stark reminder of the fragility of global peace. From the devastating conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, and Gaza to escalating tensions elsewhere, the international community faced a confluence of crises. But beyond the headlines, a deeper analysis reveals emerging trends that will likely shape the landscape of peace and security for years to come. This isn’t simply about more conflict; it’s about a fundamental shift in the *nature* of conflict and the tools needed to address it.
The Rise of Hybrid Warfare and Non-State Actors
Traditional interstate warfare isn’t disappearing, but it’s increasingly intertwined with hybrid tactics. We’re seeing a blurring of lines between military and non-military actions, including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, economic coercion, and the exploitation of social vulnerabilities. The conflict in Ukraine is a prime example, showcasing a complex interplay of conventional warfare, cyber warfare, and information operations.
Simultaneously, non-state actors – from criminal gangs to extremist groups – are gaining influence and challenging the authority of states. The situation in Haiti, highlighted by the UN, demonstrates how criminal violence can destabilize an entire nation, requiring international intervention. This trend necessitates a shift in focus from solely state-to-state diplomacy to engaging with and understanding the dynamics of these non-state actors.
Did you know? A 2023 report by the Global Crisis Prevention and Conflict Resolution Forum found that conflicts involving non-state actors are, on average, 3.5 times longer than those between states.
The Funding Gap: A Crisis Within a Crisis
The UN’s financial woes, as underscored by Under-Secretary-General DiCarlo, are not merely an administrative issue. They represent a systemic failure to adequately invest in peacebuilding. As demand for UN electoral assistance grows – with over 40 countries receiving support in 2025 – funding is dwindling. This creates a dangerous paradox: the need for preventative diplomacy and conflict resolution is increasing, while the resources available to address it are decreasing.
This funding gap isn’t limited to the UN. Peacebuilding initiatives globally are chronically underfunded, with a significant disparity between the cost of conflict and the investment in preventing it. The IMF’s research, showing a potential return of $26-$103 for every dollar spent on prevention, underscores the economic rationale for increased investment.
The Expanding Role of Sanctions – and Their Limitations
UN sanctions are evolving, becoming more targeted and nuanced. The shift from broad, country-wide measures to focusing on specific individuals and entities is a positive development. However, sanctions are not a panacea. Their effectiveness depends on robust implementation, international cooperation, and a clear understanding of their potential unintended consequences.
The case of Sudan illustrates this challenge. Despite sanctions regimes, the conflict continues to escalate, fueled by external actors and a lack of accountability for arms flows. Sanctions must be integrated into a broader strategy that includes diplomacy, mediation, and support for local peacebuilding efforts.
Women, Peace, and Security: Beyond Rhetoric to Real Impact
The “Through Her Lens” exhibit, showcasing women’s roles in peacebuilding, is a powerful reminder that peace is not solely a masculine domain. However, translating this recognition into tangible progress remains a challenge. Women’s participation in peace negotiations and decision-making processes is still woefully inadequate.
Pro Tip: Supporting women-led organizations and initiatives is one of the most effective ways to build sustainable peace. These organizations often have deep roots in their communities and a nuanced understanding of local dynamics.
Climate Change as a Conflict Multiplier
While not explicitly detailed in the report, the underlying connection between climate change and conflict is becoming increasingly evident. Indigenous communities, who often steward vital natural resources, are disproportionately affected by climate risks and are frequently marginalized in decision-making processes. Addressing climate change is not just an environmental imperative; it’s a crucial component of conflict prevention.
The UN’s focus on Indigenous-led climate-informed peacebuilding is a step in the right direction, recognizing the vital role these communities play in fostering resilience and managing natural resources sustainably.
The Future of UN Engagement: Special Political Missions and Preventative Diplomacy
The UN’s Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA) is increasingly relying on special political missions to address complex challenges on the ground. These missions offer a flexible and adaptable approach to conflict prevention and resolution, allowing the UN to engage in long-term, sustained efforts.
However, the success of these missions depends on strong political support from member states and adequate financial resources. Preventative diplomacy – engaging early to address the root causes of conflict – is often the most cost-effective approach, but it requires a long-term commitment and a willingness to invest in building trust and fostering dialogue.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is hybrid warfare?
A: Hybrid warfare combines conventional military tactics with non-military strategies like cyberattacks, disinformation, and economic pressure.
Q: Why is funding for peacebuilding so limited?
A: Funding is often prioritized for immediate crisis response rather than long-term prevention, despite the higher return on investment for preventative measures.
Q: How effective are UN sanctions?
A: Sanctions can be effective when targeted, implemented consistently, and integrated into a broader diplomatic strategy.
Q: What role do women play in peacebuilding?
A: Women are crucial actors in peacebuilding, bringing unique perspectives and contributing to more sustainable and inclusive peace processes.
Q: How does climate change contribute to conflict?
A: Climate change exacerbates existing tensions over resources, displaces populations, and creates new vulnerabilities, increasing the risk of conflict.
The challenges facing the international community are immense, but not insurmountable. By recognizing these emerging trends, investing in preventative diplomacy, and prioritizing inclusive peacebuilding efforts, we can work towards a more peaceful and sustainable future.
What are your thoughts on the future of global peace? Share your insights in the comments below!
