Žalgiris’s EuroLeague Playoff Push: Analyzing the Odds and Future Outlook
Kaunas’ Žalgiris basketball team, under the guidance of coach Tomo Masiulis, is currently navigating a competitive EuroLeague season. Having secured victories in 11 of their first 19 games, the team finds itself in a promising position, sharing 8th-10th place with Real Madrid and Crvena Zvezda. The landscape is dynamic, however, with Olympiacos potentially joining the fray depending on the outcome of a postponed game against Fenerbahče.
The Race for the Top 10: A Statistical Deep Dive
Žalgiris, alongside other teams with 11 wins, has established a two-game cushion over those hovering just outside the playoff picture. Virtus Bologna, Olimpia Milano, and Dubai currently occupy the 11th-13th spots with 9 wins each. Interestingly, Žalgiris is only two wins away from the EuroLeague summit, currently co-held by Valencia and Hapoel Tel Aviv (both with 13 wins). A Fenerbahče win against Olympiacos could further tighten the race at the top.
Photo: Scanpix / Sylvainas Francisco
Projecting Playoff Qualification: The Numbers Game
According to calculations by Figurei8ht, a team will likely need 20 or 21 wins to secure a spot in the playoffs. This translates to a requirement of 9 or 10 victories for Žalgiris in the remaining 19 games of the regular season. Currently, the probability of Žalgiris finishing within the top 10 stands at a robust 84%.
Beyond the Play-Ins: Aiming for Direct Qualification
While a playoff berth is within reach, Žalgiris also harbors ambitions of directly qualifying for the quarterfinals by finishing in the top six. This would necessitate at least 23 wins, a feat currently assessed with a 39% probability. Even a top-four finish, guaranteeing home-court advantage in the quarterfinals, remains a possibility, albeit with a 20% chance of success.
Figurei8ht’s Prediction and Potential Scenarios
Figurei8ht’s predictive model forecasts Žalgiris to conclude the regular season in eighth place with 22 wins from 38 games. This would lead to a play-in game against the seventh-placed team. A win would propel them into the quarterfinals, while a loss would necessitate a do-or-die match against the winner of the 9th vs. 10th place matchup.
EuroLeague Playoff & Play-In Projection | Round 19/38 (🖇️ card)
Key highlights
🔸Last season’s Final Four teams are favorites for the top 4 spots (Fenerbahçe, Monaco, Panathinaikos, Olympiacos)
🔸Hapoel, Valencia, and Barcelona remain close to the top 4 and will clash for direct… pic.twitter.com/YfdlYbeIt5— Figurei8ht (@Figurei8ht) January 3, 2026
The Contenders: Who Else is in the Mix?
Despite Valencia and Hapoel’s current lead, Figurei8ht’s analysis suggests that the teams with the highest probability of securing a top-four spot are those who reached the Final Four last season: Fenerbahče, Monaco, Panathinaikos, and Olympiacos. Following closely behind are Hapoel, Valencia, and Barcelona, with Žalgiris, Real Madrid, and Crvena Zvezda positioned just below them.
Photo: AFP / EuroLeague Final: Fenerbahče – Monaco
Long-Shot Contenders and the Probability of Success
Teams currently outside the top 10 face an uphill battle, with no team possessing a greater than 30% chance of climbing into the playoff or play-in zones. This highlights the competitive nature of the EuroLeague and the importance of consistent performance.
Key Takeaways and Future Outlook
Žalgiris’s season is poised for an exciting second half. While a top-four finish remains a challenging goal, the team’s current trajectory and statistical projections suggest a strong likelihood of playoff contention. The key will be maintaining momentum and capitalizing on opportunities against direct rivals.
Did you know?
Historically, teams that achieve a win percentage of .550 or higher in the first half of the EuroLeague season have a greater than 80% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Pro Tip
Keep a close eye on Žalgiris’s head-to-head matchups against teams currently ranked 7th-11th. These games will be crucial in determining their playoff fate.
FAQ
- What is the current win-loss record of Žalgiris? Žalgiris has a record of 11 wins and 8 losses as of January 3, 2026.
- What is the minimum number of wins Žalgiris needs to reach the playoffs? Figurei8ht estimates Žalgiris needs 20 or 21 wins to secure a playoff spot.
- What are Žalgiris’s chances of finishing in the top six? The probability of Žalgiris finishing in the top six is currently estimated at 39%.
- Who are the main contenders for the EuroLeague title? Fenerbahče, Monaco, Panathinaikos, and Olympiacos are considered the frontrunners based on current form and statistical analysis.
Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as Žalgiris continues its EuroLeague journey. Explore more basketball news and analysis on our sports page, or subscribe to our newsletter for the latest updates delivered directly to your inbox.
