Ukraine’s Bold Pivot: Trading NATO Membership for Bilateral Security Guarantees
In a surprise turn of events, President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled that Kyiv is ready to put aside its long‑standing NATO‑membership ambition in exchange for concrete, legally binding security guarantees from the United States, Europe, Canada and Japan. The statement came ahead of a high‑stakes meeting in Berlin that brings together the U.S. envoy Michael L. Witkoff, former White House adviser Jared Kushner, and Ukrainian officials.
Why Security Guarantees Matter More Than a Formal Alliance
Security guarantees that mirror NATO’s Article 5 – the collective‑defence clause – would obligate partners to come to Ukraine’s aid if Moscow launches a new offensive. Did you know? A 2022 Pew Research survey showed that 71 % of Ukrainians view a formal NATO membership as the “most important” security measure, but the same poll found 54 % would accept “strong bilateral guarantees” as a viable alternative.
The Russian Counter‑Demand: No NATO Expansion Eastward
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly insisted that any settlement must include a written pledge that NATO will not expand toward Russia’s borders. This includes a ban on NATO troops stationed in Ukraine and a formal rejection of future membership for Georgia, Moldova and other ex‑Soviet states.
Recent statements from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (see June 2025 briefing) stress that a “written assurance” is a non‑negotiable pre‑condition for any peace talks.
Emerging Trends Shaping the Future of European Security
1. Bilateral Guarantees as a New Norm
Countries are increasingly turning to “mini‑NATO” arrangements – bilateral or multilateral pacts that replicate Article 5’s collective defence without a full alliance framework. Examples include the U.S.–Japan Security Treaty and the recent EU‑Ukraine Strategic Partnership.
These pacts offer flexibility, faster decision‑making and can be tailored to specific regional threats.
2. Diplomatic “Track‑Two” Initiatives Gaining Traction
Beyond official negotiations, unofficial “track‑two” dialogues – like the Berlin talks involving Kushner – are becoming essential for breaking stalemates. Pro tip: Policymakers should leverage think‑tank platforms (e.g., Carnegie Endowment, Brookings) to host these back‑channel discussions, as they provide plausible deniability and creative leeway.
3. Hybrid Warfare and Cyber Defences
Even if a conventional security guarantee is secured, Ukraine will still face hybrid threats – cyber attacks, disinformation, and proxy incursions. NATO’s Cyber Defence Policy is likely to be extended to any “guaranteed” partner, creating a new layer of protection.
4. The Rise of “Security‑by‑Contract” Economics
Financial support is increasingly being bundled with security promises. The 2024 European Peace Facility (EPF) allocated €1.2 billion to Ukraine for “defence‑related procurement,” a model that may be replicated for other near‑miss states seeking similar guarantees.
What This Means for the Geopolitical Landscape
Should the Berlin‑initiated framework materialise, we may see a “de‑NATO‑ification” of Eastern Europe where security is ensured through a patchwork of contracts rather than a monolithic alliance. This could reduce Russian perception of encirclement, potentially lowering the risk of a wider conflict.
However, the approach also carries risks: fragmented guarantees may lack the cohesiveness of NATO, and divergent national interests could create loopholes that adversaries exploit.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What are bilateral security guarantees?
- They are formal promises between two or more states to provide military assistance if one of them is attacked, mirroring NATO’s Article 5 but without full alliance membership.
- Can Ukraine still join NATO later?
- Yes. Guarantees are often framed as “temporary” measures, leaving the door open for future NATO accession if political conditions change.
- Why involve Jared Kushner in the talks?
- Kushner’s private‑sector connections and experience in back‑channel diplomacy are seen as assets for facilitating unofficial negotiations that official channels may struggle with.
- What does “no NATO expansion eastward” specifically mean?
- It means Moscow wants a written assurance that no former Soviet states—particularly Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and the Baltic nations—will be admitted to NATO now or in the future.
- How will cyber threats be addressed under new security guarantees?
- All parties have indicated they will incorporate NATO‑style cyber‑defence cooperation, including shared threat intelligence and joint response protocols.
Looking Ahead
The Berlin negotiations could set a precedent for resolving protracted conflicts through “security‑by‑contract” rather than traditional alliance expansion. Observers will watch closely how Ukraine, the United States, and European powers balance the desire for a durable peace with the strategic calculus of deterring Russian aggression.
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