Florida State’s Mike Norvell, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell, and Baylor’s Dave Aranda currently face the highest level of job insecurity in college football, each carrying a 5.0 “hot seat” rating from CBS Sports experts. According to the annual polling, these three coaches represent the most urgent cases for improvement heading into the 2026 season, as programs look to avoid the turnover that saw five of eight high-risk coaches fired last year.
The Pressure Cooker: Who Is at Greatest Risk?
The 2026 coaching carousel is already spinning for a select group of Power Conference leaders. CBS Sports experts—including Matt Zenitz, Shehan Jeyarajah, and others—assigned numerical values to every FBS coach to quantify job security. With a 5.0 representing the “hottest” possible seat, Norvell, Fickell, and Aranda top the list.
The pressure extends just below that trio. Maryland’s Mike Locksley sits at a 4.9, while South Carolina’s Shane Beamer (4.3) and North Carolina’s Bill Belichick (4.1) round out the group currently facing the most significant scrutiny. These ratings are based on a consensus of 10 analysts who evaluated win-loss records and tenure length to determine which coaches are truly on the clock.
Did you know?
Last season, five of the eight coaches who received a CBS Sports Hot Seat rating of 4.1 or higher were fired. However, the system is not a perfect predictor; Oklahoma’s Brent Venables and Arizona’s Brent Brennan both managed to reverse their narratives after entering the season under heavy fire.
Why Ratings Don’t Guarantee Dismissal
A high rating signals urgency, but it does not dictate a coach’s fate. Historical data from CBS Sports shows that volatility in college football often defies preseason projections. For example, Brian Kelly was dismissed midseason last year despite holding a 3.33 rating, and Penn State’s James Franklin was fired despite a 1.33 preseason score.
Conversely, coaches can successfully “cool” their seats through on-field performance. Sonny Cumbie, the Louisiana Tech coach, entered last season with a 5.0 rating but secured an Independence Bowl win and a fourth-place finish in Conference USA. That performance dropped his pressure rating to a 3.2, proving that a strong campaign can effectively reset the clock for a head coach.
The Landscape of FBS Coaching Stability
Despite the high-profile pressure on a few, the broader landscape of the FBS is currently stable. Widespread coaching changes over the last few years mean that more than half of all programs are in a position where their coaching outlook seems pretty stable, barring something crazy.
Hot Seat Rating Key:
- 5.0: Win or be fired
- 4.0–4.99: Start improving now
- 3.0–3.99: Pressure is mounting
- 2.0–2.99: All good… for now
- 1.0–1.99: Safe and secure
- 0–0.99: Untouchable
Frequently Asked Questions
Can a coach with a 5.0 rating save their job?
Yes. As seen with Sonny Cumbie at Louisiana Tech, a successful season with bowl eligibility can significantly lower a coach’s pressure rating and secure their position for the following year.
Do these ratings accurately predict who will be fired?
They are strong indicators of pressure, but not guarantees. Last year, five of the eight coaches rated 4.1 or higher were fired, but others, like Brent Venables, used the season to improve their standing.
Who determines these hot seat rankings?
The rankings are determined by a panel of 10 CBS Sports college football experts, including Matt Zenitz, Shehan Jeyarajah, Brandon Marcello, John Talty, Tom Fornelli, Chris Hummer, Chip Patterson, Austin Nivison, Cody Nagel, and Brad Crawford.
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