The 2026 Open Championship begins Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, with Scottie Scheffler entering as the +700 betting favorite according to FanDuel odds. Defending champion Scheffler tees off at 4:58 a.m. ET, while the tournament’s first tee times start at 1:35 a.m. ET.
Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy Lead 2026 Open Championship Odds
Scottie Scheffler holds the top spot on the FanDuel odds board at +700. Rory McIlroy follows closely as the second favorite at +850. Other top contenders include Englishmen Matt Fitzpatrick (+1300) and Tommy Fleetwood (+1500), along with Jon Rahm (+2000) and Xander Schauffele (+2500).
Jordan Spieth won the event the last time it was hosted at this venue in 2017. Currently, Spieth is listed at +8000 odds for the 2026 return.
SportsLine Model Predicts Ludvig Åberg as Top-3 Contender
A proprietary simulation model from SportsLine, developed by DFS professional Mike McClure, identifies Ludvig Åberg as a top-three contender despite his +3300 odds. According to SportsLine, Åberg’s strength in both driving distance and accuracy makes him a primary threat at Royal Birkdale.
Åberg’s recent major performance supports this projection. He secured a T4 finish at the PGA Championship and placed in the top 25 during his previous British Open appearance. This will be his third career start in the event.
Did you know? The SportsLine model has successfully predicted 17 majors, including five consecutive Masters tournaments and last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship.
Why the Model Flags Tommy Fleetwood as a Fade
Despite being tied for the fourth-lowest odds at +1500, Tommy Fleetwood is identified by the SportsLine model as a golfer to “fade.” The simulation suggests Fleetwood will not finish in the top five.
Data supporting this projection includes Fleetwood’s lack of a top-11 major finish this year. Historically, he finished 27th the last time the Open was held at Royal Birkdale. He also missed the cut in 2024 and finished outside the top 10 in the previous year’s event.
Comparing Market Odds vs. Model Projections
There is a notable gap between public betting sentiment and the 10,000-simulation model results. While the market favors established names, the model targets high-value longshots.
| Player | FanDuel Odds | Model Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +700 | Favorite |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1500 | Fade (Outside Top 5) |
| Ludvig Åberg | +3300 | Top-3 Contender |
2026 Open Championship Betting FAQ
When does the 2026 Open Championship start?
The tournament begins Thursday, July 16, with the first tee times at 1:35 a.m. ET.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Open?
Scottie Scheffler is the current favorite with odds of +700 via FanDuel.
Where is the 2026 Open Championship being held?
The event takes place at the Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England.
Who is your pick for the Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale? Do you agree with the model on Ludvig Åberg?
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