A Flinders University study found that as many as 220,000 Indigenous Australians died in a smallpox outbreak triggered by the British First Fleet’s arrival at Sydney Cove in 1789. Computer modelling indicates the virus spread from Sydney through the basin and across the eastern continent, causing a demographic collapse that crippled First Nations’ resistance to colonisation.
Computer Modelling Identifies First Fleet as Smallpox Source
Researchers at Flinders University used new computer modelling to resolve a long-standing historical debate regarding the origin of the 1789 smallpox epidemic. The data suggests the disease arrived via British ships, contradicting theories that the virus was introduced by Makassan traders from south-east Asia.
Dr. Cody Nitschke, a Research Associate in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, stated that the model tested these two origin stories directly. According to Nitschke, the results show it was “extremely unlikely” for smallpox to have reached Sydney if it had been introduced from the north by Makassans.
The Scale of Demographic Collapse in South-East Australia
The epidemic’s impact was concentrated in the south-eastern coastal regions and along major river systems, including the Murray and Lachlan Rivers. Based on a 60 per cent lethality rate, Nitschke estimates the loss of between 40,000 and 220,000 people in these specific regions.
Professor Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University characterized the outbreak as one of the most devastating events resulting from the colonial invasion. He noted that the loss was not just numerical but systemic, as the virus targeted the most vulnerable members of society.
Vulnerable Populations and Knowledge Loss
The study highlights that elders, children, and pregnant women were especially susceptible to the disease. According to Professor Bradshaw, this specific loss meant that language, culture, and traditional knowledge systems suffered “deep harm” alongside the population decline.
Long-term Consequences for Land Management and Resistance
The sudden population crash altered the trajectory of Australian history by disrupting the ability of First Nations people to manage “Country” and resist British expansion. The study finds that even those who survived the infection were often too compromised to maintain traditional land care practices.
This disruption created a “traumatic legacy” and generational trauma that persists today, according to Dr. Nitschke. The inability to maintain traditional systems of governance and land management facilitated the speed and scale of British colonisation.
Comparing Origin Theories: First Fleet vs. Makassans
| Theory | Proposed Source | Flinders Study Finding |
|---|---|---|
| First Fleet | British ships at Sydney Cove (1789) | Most consistent with how the disease spreads. |
| Makassan | South-east Asian traders in the North | Extremely unlikely to have reached Sydney. |
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Indigenous Australians died in the 1789 smallpox outbreak?
According to the Flinders University study, the death toll is estimated between 40,000 and 220,000 people.
Where did the smallpox outbreak originate?
Computer modelling indicates the outbreak originated in Sydney following the arrival of the British First Fleet in 1789.
Did the disease spread across all of Australia?
No. Dr. Cody Nitschke stated the epidemic was likely limited to south-eastern coastal regions and major intersecting rivers like the Murray and Lachlan.
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