NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts G1 to G3-class geomagnetic storms from July 3 through July 4, potentially making the northern lights visible in up to 26 U.S. states. These conditions result from a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with an X1.1 solar flare that occurred on June 30, according to NOAA.
Why are the Northern Lights appearing in the U.S.?
The aurora’s visibility is driven by the sun’s 11-year solar cycle. According to Forbes, sightings have increased over the last two years because the sun reached its solar maximum phase. While it is now in a declining phase, powerful solar events still push plasma into Earth’s magnetosphere.
The likelihood of a display depends on the interplanetary magnetic field’s Bz component. SpaceWeatherLive.com and various tracking apps monitor this; when Bz swings south, it allows solar energy to enter the atmosphere. A sustained southward Bz of −5 nT or stronger typically signals an imminent aurora, according to Forbes.
Which states can see the aurora this weekend?
Visibility varies based on the storm’s intensity. According to data cited by Forbes, different G-class levels trigger different viewing zones:
- G2-Level: Northern states including Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine. Other possibilities include Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire.
- G3-Level: If a G3 storm materializes, the viewline extends further south to Kansas, Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and Maryland.
How do different forecasts compare for July 3-4?
Different agencies provide varying estimates on the storm’s strength. NOAA predicts G1-G2 conditions are likely due to the June 30 CME. However, the UK Met Office suggests a G3-class “Strong” storm is possible if the CME is more impactful than anticipated. SpaceWeather.com aligns with the higher end, stating a series of direct and glancing blows could spark G2 to G3 storms over the holiday weekend.
| Source | Predicted Intensity | Primary Cause |
|---|---|---|
| NOAA | G1-G2 (Likely) | June 30 CME / X1.1 Flare |
| UK Met Office | G1 to G3 (Possible) | Impactful CME |
| SpaceWeather.com | G2-G3 (Possible) | Direct+Glancing Blows |
What makes viewing the aurora difficult in July?
Timing and light pollution are the primary obstacles. Long daylight hours following the June solstice mean the sky stays brighter longer. Additionally, Forbes notes that the waning Strawberry Moon in the southern sky after midnight can compete with the faint glow of the aurora on the northern horizon.
How can you track the lights in real time?
Observers should look north around midnight and avoid bright city lights. To get live data, NOAA provides a 30-minute aurora forecast. Forbes also recommends using apps such as Aurora Now, My Aurora Forecast, or Glendale Aurora for up-to-the-minute alerts and solar wind data.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a G3-class geomagnetic storm?
It is a “Strong” storm that can push the aurora’s visibility further south, potentially reaching states like Maryland and Virginia.
When is the best time to look?
According to forecasts, the peak window is overnight from Friday, July 3, through Saturday, July 4.
Why do I need a camera to see the aurora?
Cameras can capture light over a longer period, allowing them to detect colors and shapes that the human eye may perceive only as a faint grey or green glow.
Do you think you’ll spot the lights this weekend? Tell us which state you’re watching from in the comments below, or subscribe to our newsletter for more space weather alerts.
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