The counting of votes for the Dublin Central and Galway West bye-elections is set to commence, with ballot boxes opening at Dublin’s RDS and Salthill’s Lawn Tennis Club.
These contests follow weeks of campaigning and carry significant implications for the major political parties and the stability of the current Coalition.
Galway West: The Battle for the Left Alliance
In Galway West, the political landscape is shaped by a “Vote Left, Transfer Left” pact organized by the grassroots group Tonn na Clé. This alliance, which helped propel Catherine Connolly to Áras an Uachtaráin, now faces a critical test as candidates vie to fill her vacated Dáil seat.
Six of the 17 candidates in the constituency have formalized this pact. However, the alliance faces internal pressures, as the candidate who finishes highest among the six will be the sole challenger for the seat.
Rivalries have emerged, including a public dispute between People Before Profit and the Green Party. There are concerns that a fragmented vote could leave the leading left candidate with too much ground to cover after the initial count.
Polls suggest varying leads within this group. The TG4/Irish Times/IPSOS B&A poll placed Labour’s Helen Ogbu at 12%, while Sinn Féin believes Mark Lohan leads the pack. Conversely, observers such as former minister Éamon Ó Cuív have suggested Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats could win.
RTÉ’s Western Correspondent Pat McGrath has described the contest as “the race between the hare and the tortoise.” A left candidate may need to successfully reel in a frontrunner from Fine Gael or Independent Ireland during a likely protracted count.
Dublin Central: The Hutch Factor and Sinn Féin Stakes
In Dublin Central, the performance of Independent Gerry Hutch remains a major point of interest. In the 2024 General Election, Hutch came within 781 votes of a seat, taking a 9.5% share of the first preference vote.
Recent polling indicates his support may have grown, with the TG4/Irish Times/IPSOS B&A poll placing him third at 14%. His votes could potentially decide the winner between the Social Democrats’ Daniel Ennis and Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan.
For Sinn Féin, the stakes are particularly high as Dublin Central is the home constituency of party leader Mary Lou McDonald. Janice Boylan faces a tricky battle, as the party’s vote in this area dipped by 12 percentage points in 2024.
While disability rights campaigner Gillian Sherratt has thrown her support behind Boylan, the outcome may have broader implications for Sinn Féin’s leadership if the party fails to secure the seat.
Fianna Fáil and the Impact of Recent Protests
Fianna Fáil enters these contests with low expectations. The party’s recent poll figures show John Stephens at 4% in Dublin Central, while the party held a 16.8% share in Galway West during the last General Election.
Some political figures suggest that poor performances could lead to internal pressure for Micheál Martin. However, Cork East TD James O’Connor stated that any debate regarding Martin’s position at this time would be “deeply corrosive to Ireland’s standing within the European Union.”
Meanwhile, the recent fuel protests and the blockade of the country’s only oil refinery may influence the results. Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas was a prominent figure during the Galway protests.
While some political observers remain cautious about Thomas’s ability to expand his vote beyond Connemara, a recent poll placed him at 16%. Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne currently leads in the polls at 17/18%, despite the Government’s historically difficult record in bye-elections.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where are the bye-election counts taking place?
The counts are being held at the RDS in Dublin and the Salthill Lawn Tennis Club in Galway.
What is the “Vote Left, Transfer Left” pact?
It is a formal agreement organized by the grassroots group Tonn na Clé involving six of the 17 candidates in the Galway West constituency.
How close was the 2024 election result for Gerry Hutch in Dublin Central?
Hutch narrowly lost out to the Labour Party’s Marie Sherlock by 781 votes on the final count.
Will these bye-elections signal a shift in the national political landscape?
