A Slim Majority of Ukrainians Support NATO Bid, Barring Occupied Territories

Ukraine Poll: Majority Ready to Join NATO Even With Russian Occupation

A recent survey by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, conducted jointly with the Razumkov Center’s Sociological Service, has revealed a shift in Ukrainian public opinion regarding NATO membership, even amidst ongoing Russian occupation.

Key Findings:

• 47% of Ukrainians are now willing to support Ukraine’s entry into NATO, even if some territories remain occupied by Russia. This figure has increased by 14 percentage points since June 2023.
• Conversely, the proportion of Ukrainians unwilling to support NATO membership under such circumstances has decreased by 16 percentage points, to 36%.

Support Varies by Demographics:

• Older respondents, aged 50 and above, were less likely to support NATO membership under occupation (40%).
• Region of residence also played a role, with respondents from eastern (36%), central (38%), and southern (48%) regions expressing less support.
• Those living below the poverty line (46%) and those without close ties on occupied territories (42%) were also less likely to support immediate NATO membership.

Perceptions on Security:

• When asked about strategies for ensuring Ukraine’s security, 55% of respondents chose NATO membership as the best option.
• A neutral status backed by international guarantees was supported by 12%.
• However, 60% believed that only NATO membership could effectively deter future Russian aggression, with 39% also considering the restoration of Ukraine’s nuclear status as a viable option.

Methodology:

The survey was conducted from November 29 to December 14, 2024, with 1,518 respondents aged 18 and above from all government-controlled territories in Ukraine, using the face-to-face method.

Related Developments:

• In November, another poll found that 70% of Ukrainians positively viewed a phased NATO integration approach, similar to what happened with reunited Germany.
• Meanwhile, a December survey indicated that over half of Polish citizens were willing to accept territorial losses or independence to end the conflict in Ukraine.