Bulgaria‘s Budget Deficit for 2024 Predicted to Reach 6.1 Billion BGN
Preliminary data and estimates suggest that Bulgaria’s budget deficit for 2024 will amount to around 6.1 billion BGN, equating to 3% of the forecasted GDP. Despite the challenging budgetary environment, the deficit is expected to improve when compared to the level set in the Annual State Budget for 2024. Significant efforts have been made to enhance revenue collection and manage expenditure growth.
The Ministry of Finance’s current forecast indicates that the "State Governance" sector’s deficit for 2024 will remain within the 3% of forecasted GDP reference value set in the Stability and Growth Pact.
Key CFP Parameters Based on Preliminary Data and Estimates:
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Revenue: Expected to reach approximately 72.0 billion BGN, representing 95.6% of annual estimates. The shortfall is primarily due to lower-than-anticipated revenues from EU funds, mainly due to the delay in the second and third tranches of the Recovery and Resilience Plan. National budget revenues are close to the annual plan, with tax revenues compensating for the shortfall in non-tax revenues.
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Tax Revenue: Around 58.7 billion BGN, representing 101.3% of the annual estimate. Nominally, this is a 12.2% increase compared to 2023. Non-tax revenues are lower than planned, mainly due to lower proceeds from the sale of non-financial assets, state and municipal fees, and other sources.
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EU Funding: Expected to amount to approximately 3.6 billion BGN, significantly lower than the 7.1 billion BGN forecast. This is primarily due to the delay in the second and third tranches of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and some operational programs, leading to around a 3.5 billion BGN shortfall in revenue from EU funds.
- Expenditure: Totaling 78.1 billion BGN, representing 95.8% of annual estimates. The increase compared to the previous year is mainly due to higher social spending, following the increase in pensions in July 2023 and July 2024, as well as increased personnel costs for educational and other sectors. Budget expenditures for local governments are significantly higher than planned, while those for EU funds are significantly lower.
Bulgaria’s Contribution to the EU Budget
Bulgaria’s net contribution to the EU budget by December 31, 2024, is expected to be 1.6 billion BGN, in line with the current legislation governing the EU’s own resources.
Statistical data and the January 2025 Information Bulletin on the execution of the State Budget and key CFP indicators will be published on the Ministry of Finance’s website, based on monthly cash execution reports for 2024.
Source: Ministry of Finance
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