Brexit: UK nears EU as economic ties strengthen – 6 years on

Six Years After Brexit: Is a Thaw Finally Coming?

Six years have passed since the United Kingdom officially left the European Union, and this June marks a decade since the referendum that saw a narrow majority (51.9%) of British voters opt for Brexit. The relationship between the UK and the EU has been anything but static, evolving from acrimony to a more pragmatic, if still complex, partnership. Increasingly, voices within the UK political landscape are openly discussing a return to closer alignment with the EU, even re-entering the single market.

Easing Trade Barriers: A Shift in Priorities

The Labour government, now a year and a half into its term, is facing persistent challenges in stimulating economic growth. Growth figures fluctuate, and the negative impact of Brexit on the UK economy is increasingly acknowledged. Studies suggest that Brexit has already cost the UK approximately 4% in productivity and 15% in trade over fifteen years, a deficit not offset by new trade deals – such as the agreement with Australia – which have yielded limited economic benefits.

Initially cautious in its rhetoric, the Labour party is now more openly acknowledging the importance of the European market. “They’re realizing as they go along that their plans for growth aren’t really working and that more is needed,” explains Joël Reland, a researcher at the UK in a Changing Europe think tank. “Without a clear strategy, Labour ministers are suddenly talking about the benefits of access to the internal market or the customs union.”

Recent agreements to ease trade in food products and reintegrate the UK into the EU electricity market are early signs of this shift. From next year, UK students will again be eligible for the Erasmus+ program, with EU students benefiting from reduced tuition fees at British universities.

Geopolitical Realities: A Renewed Partnership

The UK’s geopolitical standing within Europe is also undergoing a reassessment. Prime Minister Keir Starmer enjoys greater international respect than he does domestically, partly due to his constructive relationship with even unpredictable leaders like Donald Trump. His pragmatic, understated approach is seen as an asset in navigating complex international relations.

The war in Ukraine has further underscored the importance of UK-EU cooperation. The “coalition of the willing,” a group of primarily European nations supporting Ukraine, originated as a joint initiative between French President Macron and Starmer. Both France and the UK have indicated a willingness to consider deploying troops to Ukraine to oversee a potential ceasefire with Russia.

The Political Tightrope: Avoiding a Return to the Brexit Debate

Former Prime Minister John Major recently described Brexit as “a moment of collective madness,” arguing that it has been a failure and that over half of Britons now believe it was the wrong decision. However, both Labour and the Conservative party are hesitant to fully embrace closer ties with the EU, fearing a backlash from remaining Brexit supporters.

While a majority (56%) of Britons now view Brexit negatively, a full return to EU membership is not a priority for most. “The government wouldn’t make itself popular by making a return to EU membership its goal,” says Joël Reland. The years following the referendum remain a painful reminder of political division for many. “That’s why Labour’s current technical approach is logical. They’re choosing to negotiate on a sector-by-sector basis, arguing that costs will be reduced. Most Britons won’t object to that.”

Nigel Farage, a key architect of Brexit, has largely avoided focusing on the issue in recent years, instead emphasizing immigration. When pressed on Brexit’s consequences, he often blames the Conservative party for a poor implementation. His continued popularity, evidenced by recent polling data, has even led to talk of a “Farage clause” in the ongoing negotiations between the UK and the EU regarding food standards – a provision stipulating financial penalties should a future government, potentially led by Farage, reverse the agreements. This tactic, while controversial, allows Farage to reframe the debate around sovereignty and financial control.

Did you know? The UK’s trade with the EU has fallen significantly since Brexit, while trade with non-EU countries has not fully compensated for the loss.

Frequently Asked Questions

• Is the UK likely to rejoin the EU? While a full re-entry is not currently a priority for either side, closer alignment and sector-specific agreements are increasingly probable.
• What is the biggest economic impact of Brexit? Reduced trade with the EU and increased trade barriers are the most significant economic consequences.
• What role does the war in Ukraine play? The conflict has highlighted the importance of UK-EU cooperation on security and defense.

Pro Tip: Keep an eye on developments in the agricultural sector, as easing trade barriers for food products is a key area of negotiation between the UK and the EU.

Explore more articles on European Union affairs and stay informed about the evolving relationship between the UK and the EU.

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