President Donald Trump has again addressed the situation in Cuba, a country that may become another focus of his administration following the capture of Nicolás Maduro earlier this month. “Cuba will very soon fail,” Trump stated Tuesday to a group of journalists in Washington. “Cuba is a nation that is very close to collapse.” While the administration has not publicly detailed its plans for the island, a strategy of economic pressure appears to be taking shape. “They were getting money from Venezuela. They were getting oil from Venezuela. They won’t be getting that anymore,” the president added.
Increased Pressure on Cuba
Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed these sentiments during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing Wednesday addressing plans regarding Venezuela. Rubio indicated different intentions for Cuba, stating, “We would like to, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to provoke a change, although we would love to see it. There’s no question that it would be a great benefit to the United States if Cuba were no longer governed by an autocratic regime.”
The government of Miguel Díaz-Canel has already begun to feel the impact of the loss of at least 35,000 barrels of Venezuelan fuel daily, following what was described as a military operation targeting Caracas. The island is now experiencing intensified power outages, reaching over 20 hours without electricity, with several gas stations closed and long lines forming for diesel. Prices on the black market have surged, with a liter of fuel costing around 1,500 Cuban pesos (three dollars) compared to half that price previously.
Rather than a military strike like the one carried out at Fuerte Tiuna, Trump’s strategy appears focused on economic hardship – a tactic also employed during his first administration, when diplomatic relations with the Obama era were reversed, travel to the island was restricted, and remittances were curtailed, significantly impacting the Cuban economy. The current focus is on oil: “NO MORE OIL AND MONEY TO CUBA. ZERO!” Trump declared on his Truth Social platform January 11.
Trump also warned Havana that they must reach an agreement “before it’s too late,” a condition Díaz-Canel appears unwilling to meet. “We have always been willing to maintain a serious and responsible dialogue with the different US administrations, including the current one, based on sovereign equality, mutual respect and the principles of international law,” the Cuban president stated.
In recent days, questions have arisen regarding Cuba’s future, but Washington’s plans remain unclear. Sources within the government told The Wall Street Journal that the United States is seeking individuals within the Cuban government willing to negotiate a deal to “expel the communist regime” before the end of the year. However, the economic pressure on the Caribbean nation has sparked disagreement among Trump administration officials, with some supporting the economic siege while others warn it will worsen the already dire situation facing Cuban families.
Another element of Trump’s strategy involves pressuring Mexico, which, according to a report from the state-owned oil company Pemex, sent nearly 20,000 barrels of oil daily to Cuba from January to September 30, 2025. Amidst tensions, the government of Claudia Sheinbaum halted exports to the island, characterizing the decision as “sovereign” and stating her country will continue to show “solidarity” with Cuba, now that it has replaced Venezuela as its primary supplier.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current US strategy toward Cuba?
The current US strategy, as indicated by President Trump, appears to be focused on economic pressure, specifically cutting off access to oil and financial resources. This is being pursued through restricting aid from Venezuela and pressuring Mexico to halt oil exports to the island.
What is the Cuban government’s response to these actions?
The Cuban government, led by Miguel Díaz-Canel, has stated its willingness to engage in dialogue with the US administration based on principles of sovereign equality and mutual respect, but appears unwilling to concede to demands for regime change.
What impact is the loss of Venezuelan oil having on Cuba?
The loss of approximately 35,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil daily is already causing significant hardship in Cuba, leading to intensified power outages, fuel shortages, and rising prices on the black market.
As the situation unfolds, it remains to be seen whether the current strategy will lead to a shift in Cuba’s government or further exacerbate the existing economic crisis. What role will international actors play in mediating the situation, and what impact will these actions have on the Cuban people?
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