President Prabowo Subianto’s administration’s ambition to achieve 8 percent economic growth by 2029 through expanded extractive industries is raising concerns about potential environmental damage and increased social inequality, according to the Indonesian Forum for the Environment (Walhi).
Growth Targets and Economic Realities
Since taking office in October 2024, President Subianto has publicly stated his goal of 8 percent gross domestic product growth by the end of his term. However, this target has been met with skepticism from economists. Bank Indonesia (BI) currently projects a growth rate of 4.9 to 5.7 percent for the current year, as stated by central bank governor Perry Warjiyo.
Ecological and Social Risks
Walhi warns that pursuing rapid economic growth could lead to an ecological crisis, building on existing government policies that have encouraged large-scale extractive activities. “There is a high price to pay for growth. What was supposed to be the foundation for prosperity instead ends up pushing vulnerable communities further to the margins,” said Wahyu Eka Setyawan, a Walhi urban campaigner, during a press briefing on Wednesday.
Expansion of Extractive Industries
Several policies implemented throughout 2025 are identified as potentially contributing to ecological degradation. These include plans to develop oil palm plantations in Papua, an area already impacted by forest clearing related to the food estate project. Communities in Papua have previously experienced repression associated with large-scale deforestation.
The food estate project, intended to achieve food self-sufficiency, is described by Walhi as the country’s “largest project to legalize deforestation.”
What Could Happen Next
If the administration continues to prioritize extractive industries to meet its growth targets, Indonesia could see increased deforestation and further marginalization of vulnerable communities. It is possible that environmental regulations could be relaxed or enforcement weakened to facilitate these projects. Conversely, increased public pressure or a shift in economic conditions could lead to a reevaluation of these policies. A slowdown in global demand for commodities could also impact the feasibility of achieving the 8 percent growth target.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 8 percent growth target?
The 8 percent growth target is a goal set by President Prabowo Subianto to increase Indonesia’s gross domestic product by 8 percent by the end of his term in 2029.
What is Walhi’s concern regarding the food estate project?
Walhi describes the food estate project as the country’s “largest project to legalize deforestation,” projecting it will open up more than 2 million hectares of forest.
What policies are raising environmental concerns?
Plans to open oil palm plantations in Papua and the ongoing food estate project are among the policies identified by Walhi as potentially leading to further ecological degradation.
How might economic pressures influence Indonesia’s environmental policies in the coming years?
