Iran on the Edge: A Former CENTCOM Deputy’s Stark Assessment
Retired Vice‑Admiral Robert Harward, who once served as deputy commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), told The Jerusalem Post that Iran is “on the brink of collapse.” Harward, now a senior adviser to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America’s Iran Policy Project, says the regime’s recent displays of force are a tired, failing play‑book.
Recent Iranian Aggression in the Gulf
In the past week U.S. Forces shot down an Iranian drone that approached the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier in the Arabian Sea. At the same time, six Iranian gunboats moved toward a U.S.-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have seized two vessels near Farsi Island.
Harward describes these moves as “tactical operations intended to harass and reinforce the limited power of the Iranian government and the IRGC.” He adds that the actions are part of a long‑standing pattern rather than a novel strategic threat.
Diplomacy Behind the Scenes
Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al‑Busaidi met separately with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, U.S. Special envoy Steve Witkoff, and former White House adviser Jared Kushner. According to Oman’s Foreign Ministry, the talks focused on “preparing the appropriate conditions for resuming diplomatic and technical negotiations” and addressed Iran’s ballistic‑missile program and its use of proxy terror groups.
Why the Regime Is Weakening
Harward points to several factors that have eroded Tehran’s strength:
- Failed attempts to project power, such as the recent drone and gunboat incidents.
- U.S. And Israeli operations that have “neutered” Iran’s surface‑to‑air missile threats.
- Decades of economic hardship, high inflation, and a worsening water crisis.
- Mass killings of protesters – Harward estimates 10,000 to 20,000 civilians have been killed – which have sparked widespread anger.
He argues that these pressures have “counterbalanced” the regime’s long‑standing propaganda and that the Iranian people are no longer being swayed by nationalist war narratives.
What Could a U.S. Response Look Like?
Harward believes President Trump’s pledge to stand behind the Iranian people could translate into several covert options:
- Providing communications and intelligence support to opposition groups.
- Supplying arms or other “below‑the‑line” assistance, similar to how Iran has been addressed asymmetrically by the United States.
- Exploring broader strategies that could influence the regime’s stability, though he cautions that “destroying the regime takes more than killing a single figurehead.”
Looking Ahead: Collapse or Continuity?
Harward predicts that Iran’s regime will collapse “sooner rather than later,” emphasizing that the question is not “if” but “when.” He foresees that a post‑regime Iran could bring “stability, far greater peace, and prosperity” thanks to its oil reserves, intellectual capacity, and the region’s overall potential.
FAQ
- Is Iran currently a strategic threat to U.S. Forces?
- Harward says the current threats are “very tactical” rather than strategic.
- What diplomatic channels are being used to address Iran’s missile program?
- Omani‑led talks involving Iran, the United States, and regional figures are focusing on ballistic‑missile concerns and proxy groups.
- How many civilians does Harward estimate have been killed in recent protests?
- He cites a range of 10,000 to 20,000 people.
- What kind of support could the U.S. Provide to Iranian protesters?
- Potential support includes communications, intelligence, arms, or covert assistance.
What’s Your Take?
Do you think the Iranian regime is truly on the brink of collapse, or will it find a way to survive? Share your thoughts in the comments below, explore more analysis on U.S.–Iran naval incidents, and subscribe to our newsletter for daily updates on Middle‑East security.
