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Australia should set immigration targets to achieve a ‘stable temporary population’, report says | Migration

by Rachel Morgan News Editor April 12, 2026
written by Rachel Morgan News Editor

Australia is facing growing pressure on its public services and housing due to a significant increase in nonpermanent residents, prompting calls for a new approach to immigration targets.

Focus on ‘Temporariness’ Needed

A new report argues that Australia should aim for a “stable temporary population” to address the issue. Researchers Alan Gamlen, director of the Australian National University’s migration hub, and emeritus professor Peter McDonald, contend that current discussions have been overly focused on net overseas migration figures, distracting from the more critical issue of the “scale of temporariness.”

Did You Know? The share of temporary migrants in Australia’s total population has more than doubled in the last 15 years, rising from 2.7% in 2010 to over 6%.

The failure to effectively manage the number of temporary migrants has contributed to concerns about social cohesion and the pressures placed on infrastructure, according to Gamlen.

Lessons from Canada

The debate comes as a number of advanced economies grapple with accommodating increased populations following the easing of pandemic border restrictions. Canada recently implemented a “radical migration reset” in late 2024, capping the number of temporary arrivals in an effort to reduce the share of temporary migrants from 7.6% to 5% of its population.

Lessons from Canada

Canada’s population is now shrinking for the first time since the 1940s, and evidence suggests this policy has eased pressure on housing costs. Gamlen believes Australia can learn from this experience, but cautioned against a similarly abrupt response.

Expert Insight: Focusing on the *stock* of temporary migrants, rather than simply net migration numbers, provides more effective control and directly addresses public concerns about infrastructure and social services.

Gamlen and McDonald propose that Australia pursue a set number of temporary migrants and link the acceptance of temporary visa holders to the country’s capacity for permanent settlement and infrastructure development. Their goal is to avoid a “metastasised population of guest workers” and manage “temporariness” effectively.

What’s Next?

If Australia adopts a policy focused on managing the stock of temporary migrants, we could see a shift in visa allocations and a greater emphasis on pathways to permanent residency. However, a rapid reduction in temporary migrants, as seen in Canada, could potentially lead to economic challenges. It is also possible that political considerations will continue to influence migration policy, as evidenced by the conflicted positions of both Labor and the Coalition.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main concern raised in the report?

The report argues that Australia needs to address the growing number of nonpermanent residents and the strain this places on public services and housing.

What is the difference between net overseas migration and the “scale of temporariness”?

Net overseas migration figures measure the overall change in population, while the “scale of temporariness” refers specifically to the number of temporary migrants in the country.

What did Canada do to address its temporary migrant population?

Canada implemented a cap on the number of temporary arrivals, aiming to lower the share of temporary migrants from 7.6% to 5% of the population.

How can Australia best balance the economic benefits of migration with the need to manage population pressures?

April 12, 2026 0 comments
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Health

The hidden harms of alcohol: Health risks and social consequences

by Chief Editor April 12, 2026
written by Chief Editor

The Sobering Future: Alcohol, Cancer, and a Changing World

The link between alcohol consumption and serious health risks, particularly cancer, is no longer a debate – it’s a firmly established scientific reality. Recent data paints a stark picture, revealing that even moderate drinking carries significant dangers. As awareness grows and research deepens, what can we expect in the coming years regarding alcohol consumption, public health initiatives, and societal attitudes?

The Rising Tide of Alcohol-Related Cancer Cases

In 2020, approximately 741,300 latest cancer cases worldwide were directly attributable to alcohol, representing 4.1% of all diagnoses. Oesophageal cancer, liver cancer, and breast cancer (in women) account for a substantial portion of these cases. This isn’t a distant threat; the numbers are climbing, and the economic burden – estimated at €4.58 billion for the EU alone in 2018 – is substantial. The trend suggests a continued increase in alcohol-related cancer rates unless significant changes are implemented.

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Shifting Public Perception and Awareness

Despite the clear evidence, public awareness of the link between alcohol and cancer remains surprisingly low. While most people recognize tobacco as a cancer risk, less than half of Europeans identify alcohol as a contributing factor. Awareness is particularly poor regarding breast cancer, with only 10-20% recognizing alcohol as a cause. Expect to see a surge in public health campaigns aimed at bridging this knowledge gap, utilizing more direct and impactful messaging. These campaigns will likely move beyond simply stating risks to highlighting the lack of any safe level of consumption.

Policy Changes on the Horizon: Taxes, Restrictions, and Advertising Bans

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends higher alcohol taxes, reduced availability, and a complete ban on alcohol advertising. These recommendations are gaining traction globally. We can anticipate stricter regulations on alcohol marketing, particularly targeting younger demographics. Increased taxation is also likely, aiming to discourage consumption and generate revenue for public health programs. Some regions may explore further restrictions on alcohol sales, such as limiting hours or reducing the number of outlets.

Pro Tip: Look for increased scrutiny of alcohol industry sponsorships of sporting events and cultural festivals. Public pressure is mounting to sever these ties and prioritize public health over corporate interests.

The Role of Genetic Research and Personalized Risk Assessment

Emerging research is exploring the genetic factors that influence an individual’s susceptibility to alcohol-related cancers. The recent study analyzing data from the US Million Veteran Program and the UK Biobank suggests that even small amounts of alcohol can elevate dementia risk. In the future, we may see the development of personalized risk assessments, allowing individuals to understand their specific vulnerability to alcohol-related health problems based on their genetic makeup and lifestyle factors. This could lead to more targeted prevention strategies.

The Role of Genetic Research and Personalized Risk Assessment

The Impact of Mental Health and Addiction

The connection between alcohol and mental illness is a critical area of concern. Alcohol is often used as a form of self-medication for anxiety and depression, but it can exacerbate these conditions and even trigger new ones. Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) affects millions worldwide, and is a significant factor in approximately one in four suicides. Expect to see increased integration of mental health services into alcohol treatment programs, and a greater emphasis on addressing the underlying emotional and psychological factors that contribute to alcohol abuse.

Islam’s Perspective: A Timeless Approach

Islamic teachings have long prohibited the consumption of alcohol, recognizing its harmful effects on physical, mental, and social well-being. This prohibition, revealed gradually through the Quran and Hadith, aligns with modern scientific understanding of the dangers of alcohol. The Islamic stance offers a comprehensive framework for safeguarding individuals and communities from the devastating consequences of alcohol consumption.

Regional Disparities and Cultural Shifts

Alcohol-related mortality rates vary significantly across the globe. Regions with higher consumption levels, such as Europe, experience higher rates of alcohol-related deaths. However, cultural norms and societal acceptance of alcohol play a crucial role. In regions where alcohol consumption is lower due to cultural or religious reasons, mortality rates are correspondingly lower. Changes in cultural attitudes towards alcohol, driven by increased awareness and public health initiatives, could lead to significant reductions in alcohol-related harm.

FAQ

Q: Is there a safe amount of alcohol to drink?
A: No. Current research indicates that there is no safe level of alcohol consumption when it comes to cancer risk.

Q: What types of cancer are most strongly linked to alcohol?
A: Oesophageal cancer, liver cancer, and breast cancer (in women) are among the most strongly linked to alcohol consumption.

Q: What is being done to address the problem of alcohol-related harm?
A: The WHO recommends higher alcohol taxes, reduced availability, and a ban on alcohol advertising. Many countries are implementing these policies.

Q: Does moderate drinking have any health benefits?
A: Previous studies suggesting benefits from moderate drinking have been debunked. Current science shows that any amount of alcohol increases health risks.

Did you know? Alcohol is classified as a Group 1 carcinogen – the highest risk category – by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

The future of alcohol consumption is likely to be characterized by increased awareness, stricter regulations, and a growing recognition of the profound health risks associated with even moderate drinking. The convergence of scientific evidence and public health initiatives is paving the way for a more sober and healthier future.

What are your thoughts on the future of alcohol regulation? Share your opinions in the comments below!

April 12, 2026 0 comments
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News

Family Tragedy on Route 34: 4 Dead, Child Hospitalized

by Chief Editor April 12, 2026
written by Chief Editor

A tragic collision on Argentina’s Ruta 34 on Sunday morning claimed the lives of two adults and two young children, ages one and six. A third child, age seven, was hospitalized but is reportedly out of danger.

Family Traveling to Youth Soccer Tournament

The accident occurred around 9:30 a.m. Near Cañada Rosquín, approximately 150 kilometers from Rosario. According to reports, a family from Carlos Pellegrini was traveling in a 4×4 vehicle toward San Martín de las Escobas to attend “Cachorritos,” a youth soccer tournament. Their vehicle collided head-on with a truck, and both vehicles left the roadway.

Did You Know? Since 2019, 335 people have died in accidents on Routes 11 and 34 within the Santa Fe province.

Route 34 Identified as High-Risk

The Liga Departamental de Fútbol San Martín has suspended all scheduled games for Sunday in response to the tragedy, expressing its solidarity with the affected family and the wider community. The Ruta 34 has been identified as one of the most dangerous roadways in the Santa Fe province, with the highest number of fatalities in recent years, often involving trucks.

Expert Insight: The high rate of accidents on Ruta 34, coupled with reports of deferred maintenance, highlights the critical need for infrastructure investment and safety improvements on key regional roadways.

Authorities are still investigating the circumstances that led to the collision. The roadway near Lehmann was recently closed due to a collapsed culvert, and repairs were underway with provincial resources.

Frequently Asked Questions

What happened on Sunday morning?

A family traveling to a youth soccer tournament was involved in a head-on collision with a truck on Ruta 34, resulting in the deaths of two adults and two children.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where did the accident occur?

The accident occurred on Ruta 34 near Cañada Rosquín, approximately 150 kilometers from Rosario.

What has been the response to the tragedy?

The Liga Departamental de Fútbol San Martín has suspended all scheduled games for Sunday and expressed its solidarity with the affected family and community.

As investigations continue, what steps might be taken to address the ongoing safety concerns surrounding Ruta 34?

April 12, 2026 0 comments
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Sport

Sweden Qualify for Euro 2026 with Win & Farewell to Legends

by Chief Editor April 12, 2026
written by Chief Editor

Sweden’s Handball Stars Sign Off in Style: A Look at the Future of the National Team

Sweden’s women’s handball team secured a resounding 39-18 victory over Lithuania in their final European Championship qualifying match, marking a bittersweet end to the international careers of two legends: Jamina Roberts and Nathalie Hagman. The win cemented Sweden’s place atop their qualifying group with a perfect record and a +69 goal difference.

A Golden Era Concludes

Jamina Roberts and Nathalie Hagman, the two most capped players in Swedish women’s handball history with a combined 532 international appearances, were honored after the match. Roberts, with 273 caps and Hagman, with 261, leave behind a legacy of dedication and success. The pair received a heartfelt send-off, including video messages from family, friends, and teammates, bringing them to tears.

Dominant Performance in Kosta

The match, played in front of 1,836 spectators in Kosta, was a clear demonstration of Sweden’s dominance. Leading 20-9 at halftime, the team continued to extend their lead, ultimately winning by 21 goals. Nathalie Hagman and Clara Lerby were the top scorers for Sweden, each netting six goals. Stina Littorin, the 21-year-old goalkeeper, was named Player of the Match after achieving a 50% save rate in the second half.

Dominant Performance in Kosta

EM 2026: What to Expect

With qualification secured, Sweden now looks ahead to the EM 2026, which will be co-hosted by Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, and Turkey from December 3-20. The team is undergoing a generational shift, and the focus will be on integrating new talent while maintaining a competitive edge.

The Rise of New Talent

The emergence of players like Stina Littorin signals a promising future for Swedish handball. Littorin’s performance against Lithuania highlights the depth of talent within the national team program. The coaching staff will be tasked with nurturing these young players and preparing them for the challenges of international competition.

Navigating a Competitive Landscape

Sweden finds itself in a challenging European handball landscape. Other nations, including Norway, Denmark, and Germany, consistently rank among the top teams. Success at EM 2026 will require a combination of tactical innovation, physical conditioning, and mental fortitude.

Looking Ahead: Generational Change and Continued Success

The retirement of Roberts and Hagman marks the end of an era, but it also presents an opportunity for a new generation of Swedish handball players to shine. The team’s strong qualifying performance and the emergence of promising young talent suggest a bright future. The focus will be on building a cohesive unit and continuing Sweden’s tradition of excellence in international handball.

FAQ

Q: Who are Jamina Roberts and Nathalie Hagman?
A: They are the two most capped players in Swedish women’s handball history, having recently retired from international competition.

Q: Where will EM 2026 be held?
A: EM 2026 will be co-hosted by Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, and Turkey.

Q: What was the final score of Sweden’s match against Lithuania?
A: Sweden won 39-18.

Q: Who was named Player of the Match against Lithuania?
A: Stina Littorin was named Player of the Match.

Did you know? Sweden finished first in their qualifying group with a +69 goal difference, demonstrating their dominance in the competition.

Pro Tip: Keep an eye on Stina Littorin – her performance against Lithuania suggests she will be a key player for Sweden in the years to come.

What are your thoughts on the future of Swedish handball? Share your predictions in the comments below!

April 12, 2026 0 comments
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News

Ex-CIA director calls for ousting Trump: ‘25th amendment was written with him in mind’ | Donald Trump

by Rachel Morgan News Editor April 12, 2026
written by Rachel Morgan News Editor

Former Central Intelligence Agency director John Brennan publicly called for the removal of the president from office, citing concerns about his fitness for the job. Brennan argued the 25th Amendment – the constitutional mechanism for involuntarily removing a president – was “written with Donald Trump in mind.”

Growing Calls for Action

Brennan, who led the CIA during the Obama administration, stated on MS Now on Saturday that the president’s recent rhetoric, specifically threats regarding Iran, justified his removal. He described the president as “clearly unhinged.”

Did You Know? The 25th Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified in 1967, establishing procedures for presidential succession and disability.

Brennan expressed concern that the president’s command of the US military, including the nuclear arsenal, posed a significant risk. His comments arrive amid a debate over the president’s handling of tensions with Iran and increasingly forceful threats of military action. On April 7th, the president warned that “Iran’s whole civilisation will die tonight” if the country did not meet his demands.

More than 70 Democrats in Congress have reportedly called for invoking the 25th Amendment, according to NBC News. The amendment allows the vice-president and a majority of the cabinet to remove a president deemed “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”

Expert Insight: While calls for invoking the 25th Amendment are increasing, the likelihood of its successful application remains low given the reported loyalty of Vice-President JD Vance and the president’s cabinet. The situation highlights the gravity of the concerns surrounding the president’s rhetoric and decision-making.

Brennan’s public criticism comes as he is himself under criminal investigation by the Justice Department, initiated at the direction of the White House. A previous investigation led to charges against former FBI Director James Comey, which were later dismissed by a judge.

Ongoing Investigations

The inquiry into Brennan is reportedly “heating up,” according to Jim Jordan, chair of the House judiciary committee. This investigation began after pressure from the White House, and relates to concerns about the prior investigation into Russian interference in the 2020 election.

Ongoing Investigations

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 25th Amendment?

The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, allows for the removal of the president from office if he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. This can be initiated by the vice-president and a majority of the cabinet.

Why is John Brennan calling for the president’s removal?

John Brennan believes the president is “clearly unhinged” and poses a danger due to his volatile rhetoric and control over the US military, including nuclear weapons. He stated the 25th Amendment was “written with Donald Trump in mind.”

Is the president likely to be removed from office?

The chances of the president being removed via the 25th Amendment are described as “close to nil” due to the loyalty shown to him by Vice-President JD Vance and his cabinet.

Given the current political climate and the failure of recent peace talks between the US and Iran, will concerns over the president’s approach to international relations continue to escalate?

April 12, 2026 0 comments
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Sport

DAC Dunajská Streda vs. MFK Zemplín Michalovce: Live Score & Updates | Niké Liga

by Chief Editor April 12, 2026
written by Chief Editor

DAC Dunajská Streda Secures 3-0 Victory Over Zemplín Michalovce

Dunajská Streda dominated Zemplín Michalovce with a decisive 3-0 win, solidifying their position in the Slovak Niké liga. The match, played on Sunday, April 12, 2026, saw goals from Mate Tuboly and Abdoulaye Gueye, with an own goal from Tornike Dzotsenidze further cementing the home side’s victory.

First Half Stalemate

The first half concluded without any goals, despite several attempts from both sides. Michalovce pressed in the closing minutes, but the score remained level at 0-0.

Second-Half Surge for Dunajská Streda

The second half witnessed a flurry of activity. Dunajská Streda broke the deadlock with a goal from Mate Tuboly in the 68th minute. Shortly after, an own goal by Tornike Dzotsenidze extended their lead to 2-0. Abdoulaye Gueye then added a third goal in the 75th minute, effectively sealing the result.

Key Moments and Substitutions

The match saw several substitutions. For Dunajská Streda, Máté Tuboly replaced Julien Bationo, whereas Georgi Gagua and Tsotne Kapanadze came on for Alioune Sylla and Nathan Udvaros respectively. Michalovce made changes bringing on Jakub Peter Bamburák for Kido Taylor-Hart, and Christos Makrygiannis and Vasilios Theofanopoulos replacing Hugo Ahl and Luka Lemishko.

Key Moments and Substitutions

Discipline on the Field

The referee issued yellow cards to Tsotne Kapanadze of Dunajská Streda and Tornike Dzotsenidze of Zemplín Michalovce.

Statistical Overview

Dunajská Streda controlled possession with 59% of the ball. They had 14 shots, with 6 on target, compared to Michalovce’s 9 shots, with 3 on target. Dunajská Streda also recorded 2 corner kicks to Michalovce’s 4.

Player Performance

Abdoulaye Gueye was instrumental in Dunajská Streda’s attack, scoring one goal. Aleksandar Popović was a key figure in goal for Dunajská Streda.

FAQ

Q: What was the final score of the match?
A: Dunajská Streda 3 – 0 Zemplín Michalovce.

Q: Who scored for Dunajská Streda?
A: Mate Tuboly and Abdoulaye Gueye, along with an own goal from Tornike Dzotsenidze.

Q: Where was the match played?
A: The match details were not provided in the source content.

Q: What league is this match from?
A: The Slovak Niké liga.

Q: Were there any yellow cards issued during the match?
A: Yes, Tsotne Kapanadze (Dunajská Streda) and Tornike Dzotsenidze (Zemplín Michalovce) received yellow cards.

Pro Tip: Preserve an eye on Abdoulaye Gueye’s performance – he’s proving to be a crucial player for Dunajská Streda.

Stay tuned for more updates and analysis from the Niké liga. Share your thoughts on the match in the comments below!

April 12, 2026 0 comments
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News

Hungary election live: Polls in Hungary close in tightly fought election after 16 years under Viktor Orbán | Hungary

by Rachel Morgan News Editor April 12, 2026
written by Rachel Morgan News Editor

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Context:
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Key events

Tisza’s leader Péter Magyar is briefing the media now.

Péter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza speaks on the day of parliamentary election in Budapest, Hungary. Photograph: Leonhard Föger/Reuters

It’s not really a victory speech – he is as careful as we are on this blog – but he says the party is “optimistic about the result.”

He says the record-high turnout also shows that the Hungarians considered this an important election, and they “made history again.”

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Two polls suggest three early questions for election night – snap analysis

Jakub Krupa

The two polls – remember: these are not exit polls and we should treat them with caution – would appear to suggest three early talking points as we brace for a long wait this evening.

The election party of Tisza in Budapest, Hungary Photograph: dts News Agency Germany/Shutterstock

The first, a pretty, erm, fundamental one, is: will the actual results be anywhere near these numbers? Could they possibly have got it really wrong?

If confirmed, these results would point to a seismic change in Hungarian politics with Viktor Orbán out of office after 16 years in power, and all sorts of major consequences for Hungary, Europe, Ukraine and beyond.

But there will be plenty people looking at them with some scepticism, not least among Fidesz and Orbán supporters.

For example, Gergely Gulyás, Orbán’s chief of staff, told reporters he still trusted Fidesz would have a majority in the new parliament. We won’t know until we get the actual results.

The second question, assuming the polls got more right than wrong, focuses on Tisza’s exact result which they suggest could even be on the verge of having a two-thirds majority in the next parliament.

Whether they have 132 or 133 votes may feel like a small difference, but it would have major implications for their ability to rewire the state and reverse some of Orbán’s reforms, which would be critical for Hungary’s relations with the EU and unblocking access to EU funds.

Finally, will the radical-right Mi Hazank make it to the parliament or not? When every seat counts, their five or six seats could be the difference between different scenarios.

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Updated at 13.45 EDT

Two new pre-election day polls suggest significant opposition lead

Two polls conducted before the vote and released as the polling stations closed appeared to suggest a likely win for the opposition Tisza party.

BUT, BUT, BUT, as explained before and I cannot stress this enough, these are not exit polls, but normal polls conducted before the election, and lots of caveats apply, so we should treat them with caution.

According to a 21 Kutatóközpont poll for Telex, Tisza was expected to poll at around 55%, Fidesz-KDNP 38%, Mi Hazank 5%, DK 1% and MKKP 1%, suggesting the opposition party could have as many as 132 seats in the 199-seat parliament.

Separately, a Median poll, also conducted before the election on 2,283 adult Hungarians, showed similar results giving Tisza 135 seats in the next parliament.

But remember, remember, remember these are not exit polls and there are lots of caveats as explained before.

We really need to wait for the official results.

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Updated at 13.33 EDT

Poll close in Hungary

The polls are now closed.

Let me get you the limited polling data we have, subject to previous caveats and restrictions.

Tl;dr: these are not exit polls, and so don’t read too much into them unless they get confirmed by official results.

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The latest turnout data show the record-high 77.8% of the electorate cast their votes by 18:30.

That’s easily the highest turnout ever.

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No exit polls tonight

Reminder: there are no exit polls.

We will get some polls after once the voting closes at 7pm, but these will be just normal polls with fieldwork in the last few days that had not been published before.

Given how wildly diverging the polls have been so far in this campaign, it is very much TBC as to whether they will match the final results.

So let’s take them more as a suggestion of what could happen than some sort of authoritative gospel.

Partial official results are expected to start coming from 8pm local time (7pm UK), and we should get a clear(er) picture of what happened later tonight.

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Government figures appear to imply voting irregularities

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

Keep an eye on the Fidesz leadership’s reaction to tonight’s results.

When asked this week, Viktor Orbán and his aides repeatedly suggested they would be prepared to concede if the opposition won the vote, even as they maintained their confidence in securing another term.

However, in the last few hours a number of senior figures made comments that appeared to question the integrity of the electoral process, with government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs posting about alleged “attempted election fraud linked to the Tisza party.”

Balázs Orbán, the PM’s political director who introduced the US vice-president JD Vance at a side event earlier this week, also made similar allegations, talking about “a wave of reports on election fraud and aggressive actions linked to the Tisza party.”

For what it’s worth Tisza’s Magyar decisively rejected these suggestions.

“Claims that anyone is preparing violent actions or planning to occupy buildings after the polls close are the usual scaremongering and lies from Fidesz. Such attempts to sow division are likely coming from Russian advisers present in the country. This kind of fake news is nothing more than the usual weak and desperate fearmongering and disinformation from Fidesz,” he said on X.

It’s important to note that so far there are no independently confirmed incidents of vote irregularities, and international OSCE observers are watching the vote very closely. They are due to report on their findings tomorrow morning.

But it’s worth keeping an eye on this government narrative in the coming hours, particularly should the result be disappointing for Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz.

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Tisza supporters hopeful as they wait for results over beers and pretzels

Flora Garamvolgyi

near Tisza party’s election night at Batthyány tér

As I walked up to the press tent on the Buda side of the river, I saw Tisza supporters gathering for the watch party having beers and pretzels in front of a massive screen that reads “System change now”.

Opposition Tisza party supporters sat opposite the Hungarian parliament as they wait for the polls to close Photograph: Flora Garamvölgyi/The Guardian

The mood at Batthyány Square is joyful and optimistic, people seem to have a genuine good time despite the chilly weather. Somewhat symbolically, the opposition’s supporters here have a direct view of the parliament from where they are sitting.

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Hungary votes – in pictures

People queue up outside a polling station during the Hungarian parliamentary election in Budapest, Hungary. Photograph: Dénes Erdős/AP
People queue outside a polling station to cast their ballots in Budapest, Hungary. Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Polling station in Hungary, Budapest. Photograph: dts News Agency Germany/Shutterstock
Election officials brought a mobile urn to an elderly couple during the general election in the outskirts of Békéscsaba, Hungary. Photograph: Peter Lehoczky/EPA
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Good ‘vibes’ give Budapest hopes for opposition win

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

in Budapest’s 14th district

Making the most of a beautiful day in Budapest, I spent a large part of the day zooming around Budapest (using the city’s great bike paths!) and chatting with voters.

Election banners along Ajtósi Dürer sor in Budapest Photograph: Jakub Krupa/The Guardian

In the 14th district of Budapest, I spoke with several people voting in the polling stations on Ajtósi Dürer sor.

Atilla, 35, told me that he was confident about the result because of “the vibes” in the city and the country. “It will be really big change,” he told me confidently.

But where was that confidence coming from, I ask. “[It’s] because of the vibes in Hungary,” he replied with a cheeky smile. “It’s the vibes, [everyone is] so passionate, and I’m hearing it’s not just in Budapest, like four years ago; it’s better.”

Atilla was confident of opposition win because of good ‘vibes’ in the capital Photograph: Jakub Krupa/The Guardian

How much a potential change of government would mean to him?

double quotation markNo words to say how much. Too much.

Separately, Barbara and Margit, 21, also expressed some hope about the result – but they struck a more cautious note.

“I feel really hopeful. We finally have a chance to change the government,” Margit said.

But Barbara said she wanted to stay “realistic” before the results come in.

“I thought last time around that the opposition seemed pretty strong and it wasn’t [in the end]. I’m trying to not get my hopes up, but we will see. I hope something changes today.”

She added that if the opposition wins,

“It will mean a lot – not just for us as a country, but also for Europe in general. I have seen quite a few posts about the Czech Republic and different countries, all waiting for [the results of] our election.”

Barbara (L) and Margit (R) were hoping for an opposition win, but remained cautious in prediction about the result of the vote. Photograph: Jakub Krupa/The Guardian
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Updated at 12.32 EDT

Voters in Budapest for change, but remain nervous about outcome

Flora Garamvolgyi

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in Budapest’s 5th district

I went to a few polling stations today to get a sense of how Budapest residents in the heart of the city are feeling about today’s elections.

A man casts his vote at a polling station during the Hungarian parliamentary elections in Budapest, Hungary. Photograph: Attila Husejnow/SOPA Images/Shutterstock

Most of them weren’t sure about the outcome, despite most polls showing a confident lead for Tisza, but expressed hope. Some young voters said they feel like they are witnessing a historic moment.

“I really hope there will be a change of government,” Fruzsi, 22, told me at Erzsébet Square, next to the famous Budapest ferris wheel, right after she cast her vote. “My experience is that there are so many angry people because they are lying to us.”

She says she is really bothered by the intense propaganda the government is pushing on voters.

Gergő, 36, seemed a little more nervous about the results. He said he and others anticipated change during previous elections, too, and were unpleasantly surprised by the outcome. So now he is more cautious and approaches today with an “anything is possible” attitude.

“But I am anticipating change. At least I’m hoping. … This arrogant political style from the government, and that they are inciting hate and attacking everyone, from teachers to judges and all ethnic groups, is awful,” he told me, adding that when the government is done with attacking Zelenskyy, they’ll find a new enemy.

Mária, 81, is also hopeful, but she is hoping for a very different outcome than Fruzsi and Gergő, rooting for the ruling party, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.

“I trust that he’ll protect our country,” she told me, adding that she doesn’t think the war is the biggest threat looming over Hungary, but rather “all of these extremist people who don’t think the way they should.” She said people should not have too high expectations for the government because they don’t have the budget to execute everything, and is hopeful that it’ll be another supermajority for Orbán.

I am now heading over to the international press room at the Tisza event – after making sure I’m properly caffeinated for the long night ahead…

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‘It’s going to be very exciting’ – what voters tell us on the ground in Budapest

in Budapest

Hungarians speak to the Guardian before decisive election – video

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• What may happen next (scenario-based analysis only, never new facts)

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Key events

Tisza’s leader Péter Magyar is briefing the media now.

Péter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza speaks on the day of parliamentary election in Budapest, Hungary. Photograph: Leonhard Föger/Reuters

It’s not really a victory speech – he is as careful as we are on this blog – but he says the party is “optimistic about the result.”

He says the record-high turnout also shows that the Hungarians considered this an important election, and they “made history again.”

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Two polls suggest three early questions for election night – snap analysis

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

The two polls – remember: these are not exit polls and we should treat them with caution – would appear to suggest three early talking points as we brace for a long wait this evening.

The election party of Tisza in Budapest, Hungary Photograph: dts News Agency Germany/Shutterstock

The first, a pretty, erm, fundamental one, is: will the actual results be anywhere near these numbers? Could they possibly have got it really wrong?

If confirmed, these results would point to a seismic change in Hungarian politics with Viktor Orbán out of office after 16 years in power, and all sorts of major consequences for Hungary, Europe, Ukraine and beyond.

But there will be plenty people looking at them with some scepticism, not least among Fidesz and Orbán supporters.

For example, Gergely Gulyás, Orbán’s chief of staff, told reporters he still trusted Fidesz would have a majority in the new parliament. We won’t know until we get the actual results.

The second question, assuming the polls got more right than wrong, focuses on Tisza’s exact result which they suggest could even be on the verge of having a two-thirds majority in the next parliament.

Whether they have 132 or 133 votes may feel like a small difference, but it would have major implications for their ability to rewire the state and reverse some of Orbán’s reforms, which would be critical for Hungary’s relations with the EU and unblocking access to EU funds.

Finally, will the radical-right Mi Hazank make it to the parliament or not? When every seat counts, their five or six seats could be the difference between different scenarios.

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Updated at 13.45 EDT

Two new pre-election day polls suggest significant opposition lead

Two polls conducted before the vote and released as the polling stations closed appeared to suggest a likely win for the opposition Tisza party.

BUT, BUT, BUT, as explained before and I cannot stress this enough, these are not exit polls, but normal polls conducted before the election, and lots of caveats apply, so we should treat them with caution.

According to a 21 Kutatóközpont poll for Telex, Tisza was expected to poll at around 55%, Fidesz-KDNP 38%, Mi Hazank 5%, DK 1% and MKKP 1%, suggesting the opposition party could have as many as 132 seats in the 199-seat parliament.

Separately, a Median poll, also conducted before the election on 2,283 adult Hungarians, showed similar results giving Tisza 135 seats in the next parliament.

But remember, remember, remember these are not exit polls and there are lots of caveats as explained before.

We really need to wait for the official results.

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Updated at 13.33 EDT

Poll close in Hungary

The polls are now closed.

Let me get you the limited polling data we have, subject to previous caveats and restrictions.

Tl;dr: these are not exit polls, and so don’t read too much into them unless they get confirmed by official results.

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The latest turnout data show the record-high 77.8% of the electorate cast their votes by 18:30.

That’s easily the highest turnout ever.

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No exit polls tonight

Reminder: there are no exit polls.

We will get some polls after once the voting closes at 7pm, but these will be just normal polls with fieldwork in the last few days that had not been published before.

Given how wildly diverging the polls have been so far in this campaign, it is very much TBC as to whether they will match the final results.

So let’s take them more as a suggestion of what could happen than some sort of authoritative gospel.

Partial official results are expected to start coming from 8pm local time (7pm UK), and we should get a clear(er) picture of what happened later tonight.

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Government figures appear to imply voting irregularities

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

Keep an eye on the Fidesz leadership’s reaction to tonight’s results.

When asked this week, Viktor Orbán and his aides repeatedly suggested they would be prepared to concede if the opposition won the vote, even as they maintained their confidence in securing another term.

However, in the last few hours a number of senior figures made comments that appeared to question the integrity of the electoral process, with government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs posting about alleged “attempted election fraud linked to the Tisza party.”

Balázs Orbán, the PM’s political director who introduced the US vice-president JD Vance at a side event earlier this week, also made similar allegations, talking about “a wave of reports on election fraud and aggressive actions linked to the Tisza party.”

For what it’s worth Tisza’s Magyar decisively rejected these suggestions.

“Claims that anyone is preparing violent actions or planning to occupy buildings after the polls close are the usual scaremongering and lies from Fidesz. Such attempts to sow division are likely coming from Russian advisers present in the country. This kind of fake news is nothing more than the usual weak and desperate fearmongering and disinformation from Fidesz,” he said on X.

It’s important to note that so far there are no independently confirmed incidents of vote irregularities, and international OSCE observers are watching the vote very closely. They are due to report on their findings tomorrow morning.

But it’s worth keeping an eye on this government narrative in the coming hours, particularly should the result be disappointing for Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz.

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Tisza supporters hopeful as they wait for results over beers and pretzels

Flora Garamvolgyi

near Tisza party’s election night at Batthyány tér

As I walked up to the press tent on the Buda side of the river, I saw Tisza supporters gathering for the watch party having beers and pretzels in front of a massive screen that reads “System change now”.

Opposition Tisza party supporters sat opposite the Hungarian parliament as they wait for the polls to close Photograph: Flora Garamvölgyi/The Guardian

The mood at Batthyány Square is joyful and optimistic, people seem to have a genuine good time despite the chilly weather. Somewhat symbolically, the opposition’s supporters here have a direct view of the parliament from where they are sitting.

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Hungary votes – in pictures

People queue up outside a polling station during the Hungarian parliamentary election in Budapest, Hungary. Photograph: Dénes Erdős/AP
People queue outside a polling station to cast their ballots in Budapest, Hungary. Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Polling station in Hungary, Budapest. Photograph: dts News Agency Germany/Shutterstock
Election officials brought a mobile urn to an elderly couple during the general election in the outskirts of Békéscsaba, Hungary. Photograph: Peter Lehoczky/EPA
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Good ‘vibes’ give Budapest hopes for opposition win

Jakub Krupa

Jakub Krupa

in Budapest’s 14th district

Making the most of a beautiful day in Budapest, I spent a large part of the day zooming around Budapest (using the city’s great bike paths!) and chatting with voters.

Election banners along Ajtósi Dürer sor in Budapest Photograph: Jakub Krupa/The Guardian

In the 14th district of Budapest, I spoke with several people voting in the polling stations on Ajtósi Dürer sor.

Atilla, 35, told me that he was confident about the result because of “the vibes” in the city and the country. “It will be really big change,” he told me confidently.

But where was that confidence coming from, I ask. “[It’s] because of the vibes in Hungary,” he replied with a cheeky smile. “It’s the vibes, [everyone is] so passionate, and I’m hearing it’s not just in Budapest, like four years ago; it’s better.”

Atilla was confident of opposition win because of good ‘vibes’ in the capital Photograph: Jakub Krupa/The Guardian

How much a potential change of government would mean to him?

double quotation markNo words to say how much. Too much.

Separately, Barbara and Margit, 21, also expressed some hope about the result – but they struck a more cautious note.

“I feel really hopeful. We finally have a chance to change the government,” Margit said.

But Barbara said she wanted to stay “realistic” before the results come in.

“I thought last time around that the opposition seemed pretty strong and it wasn’t [in the end]. I’m trying to not get my hopes up, but we will see. I hope something changes today.”

She added that if the opposition wins,

“It will mean a lot – not just for us as a country, but also for Europe in general. I have seen quite a few posts about the Czech Republic and different countries, all waiting for [the results of] our election.”

Barbara (L) and Margit (R) were hoping for an opposition win, but remained cautious in prediction about the result of the vote. Photograph: Jakub Krupa/The Guardian
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Updated at 12.32 EDT

Voters in Budapest for change, but remain nervous about outcome

Flora Garamvolgyi

in Budapest’s 5th district

I went to a few polling stations today to get a sense of how Budapest residents in the heart of the city are feeling about today’s elections.

A man casts his vote at a polling station during the Hungarian parliamentary elections in Budapest, Hungary. Photograph: Attila Husejnow/SOPA Images/Shutterstock

Most of them weren’t sure about the outcome, despite most polls showing a confident lead for Tisza, but expressed hope. Some young voters said they feel like they are witnessing a historic moment.

“I really hope there will be a change of government,” Fruzsi, 22, told me at Erzsébet Square, next to the famous Budapest ferris wheel, right after she cast her vote. “My experience is that there are so many angry people because they are lying to us.”

She says she is really bothered by the intense propaganda the government is pushing on voters.

Gergő, 36, seemed a little more nervous about the results. He said he and others anticipated change during previous elections, too, and were unpleasantly surprised by the outcome. So now he is more cautious and approaches today with an “anything is possible” attitude.

“But I am anticipating change. At least I’m hoping. … This arrogant political style from the government, and that they are inciting hate and attacking everyone, from teachers to judges and all ethnic groups, is awful,” he told me, adding that when the government is done with attacking Zelenskyy, they’ll find a new enemy.

Mária, 81, is also hopeful, but she is hoping for a very different outcome than Fruzsi and Gergő, rooting for the ruling party, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.

“I trust that he’ll protect our country,” she told me, adding that she doesn’t think the war is the biggest threat looming over Hungary, but rather “all of these extremist people who don’t think the way they should.” She said people should not have too high expectations for the government because they don’t have the budget to execute everything, and is hopeful that it’ll be another supermajority for Orbán.

I am now heading over to the international press room at the Tisza event – after making sure I’m properly caffeinated for the long night ahead…

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‘It’s going to be very exciting’ – what voters tell us on the ground in Budapest

in Budapest

Hungarians speak to the Guardian before decisive election – video

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