According to calculations from an upcoming peer-reviewed study detailed by IFLScience, an abandoned SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stage is projected to strike the lunar surface on August 5, 2026, creating a crater roughly 20 to 30 meters in diameter. Researchers note that while detailed imaging of the impact site will likely require lunar orbiters, the resulting flash could be visible from Earth under favorable viewing conditions.
SpaceX Falcon 9 Trajectory and Impact Details
The upper stage of the rocket was originally used in 2025 to launch the Firefly Blue Ghost-1 and ispace Hakuto-R Resilience lunar landers. Gregory Radisic, a researcher at Bond University and a member of the study team, explained the trajectory mechanics. “After completing its task, the rocket did not have enough fuel to return to Earth or reach deep space,” Radisic said. “It remained in an unstable orbit until gravity steered it toward a collision with the lunar surface.”
Current calculations indicate the stage will hit near the Einstein crater on the western rim of the Moon. The kinetic energy released during the impact will reach approximately 11.8 gigajoules, equivalent to the explosive power of 2.8 tons of TNT, according to the research team’s models.
Debris Field and Scientific Value
Beyond carving a new crater, the impact will scatter significant quantities of dust and rock across the lunar surface. Models predict that a continuous debris blanket will cover an area about 70 meters in diameter, while the largest ejected fragments could travel nearly one thousand kilometers. This dispersion poses considerations for the safety of future lunar bases and astronauts operating on the Moon.
The event offers unique scientific value because the mass and trajectory of the incoming object are precisely known. According to the study authors, this provides a rare opportunity to compare theoretical models of impact flashes and debris clouds with actual empirical measurements.
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The impactor will strike the Moon at roughly 2 kilometers per second, which is considerably slower than natural meteoroid impacts. Because of this lower velocity, the resulting light flash is expected to be much dimmer than typical natural impacts on the lunar surface.
Observing the August 2026 Lunar Impact
Observing the event will present logistical challenges due to the slower impact speed and dimmer flash. For those attempting to view the occurrence from Earth, the optimal timing falls on August 5 at approximately 8:35 AM Central European Time. The most favorable viewing conditions will be centered over South America and the southern and central parts of North America, where darkness will aid visibility.
This event follows previous artificial lunar impacts, most notably NASA’s 2009 LCROSS mission, which intentionally guided a rocket stage into the Moon’s permanently shadowed craters at the south pole to confirm the presence of water ice. While the 2026 impact is an unguided orbital decay rather than a targeted science experiment, researchers emphasize that it serves as a practical case study for understanding space debris risks to future lunar infrastructure.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the SpaceX rocket stage hit the Moon?
Calculations point to August 5, 2026, for the anticipated impact.
Where on the Moon will the rocket crash?
The object is projected to strike near the Einstein crater on the Moon’s western rim.
Can the impact be seen from Earth?
Experts state that under favorable conditions—specifically from South America and parts of North America during dark hours—the flash might be detected from Earth, though it will be dimmer than natural meteoroid impacts.
How large of a crater will be formed?
Study models estimate the impact will produce a crater measuring 20 to 30 meters in diameter.
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