A discarded upper-stage portion of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is projected to collide with the moon at more than 5,000 miles per hour, according to orbital tracking analysis by software developer Bill Gray. The piece, measuring roughly the size of a five-story building, is expected to impact the lunar surface on the sunlit side facing Earth near the Einstein Crater.
Tracking the Falcon 9 Upper Stage Impact
The colliding object originated from a Falcon 9 launch that deployed a pair of lunar landers and scientific instruments in January 2025. While tracking space debris remains a complex task, Gray’s trajectory calculations pin the impact timeline precisely. SpaceX did not intend for the defunct booster segment to strike the lunar surface, and the company has not responded to requests for comment regarding the trajectory, according to reporting by the Associated Press.
Space debris hitting the moon is relatively rare, giving researchers a unique, albeit accidental, planetary science experiment. Ground-based observation may prove difficult. According to Gray, while some professional telescopes might struggle to capture the initial impact or resulting dust plume, rocks ejected from the collision could become visible against darker backgrounds.
NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Targeting Plans
NASA plans to capitalize on the collision using orbital assets. Brent Garry, a project scientist for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, outlined agency plans during a discussion held by NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI).
According to Garry, the LRO will pass over the impact region both before and after the event to evaluate surface changes. "After the impact we might have a little bit more knowledge of where it is," Garry said during the SSERVI discussion. "We can do some additional targeting about a week after the impact and get some targeting over where the site is."
Researchers anticipate the impact could carve out a crater measuring at least 17 meters in diameter. Scientists emphasize that while direct visual confirmation from Earth will require specialized equipment, the event offers valuable real-world data on high-velocity impacts in a natural setting.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where will the rocket piece hit the moon?
The debris is expected to strike the northwestern portion of the moon near the Einstein Crater, on the sunlit side facing Earth.
Will the impact be visible from Earth with a telescope?
Visibility remains uncertain. While professional and advanced amateur telescopes with sensitive equipment might detect ejected material or dust plumes, standard binoculars will not be sufficient, according to researchers.
What will NASA do to study the impact site?
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will image the region before and after the collision to identify surface modifications and measure the resulting crater size.
Who calculated the impact trajectory?
Orbital calculations were developed by Bill Gray, a software developer who specializes in tracking objects in space.
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