Weather forecasters are monitoring Tropical Storm Marie as it develops in the eastern Pacific, with computer models showing a low but uncertain chance that remnants or moisture could reach Southern California by Labor Day weekend, bringing potential high surf and rain.
Southern California could see coastal flooding, elevated surf, and potential rainfall over the upcoming Labor Day holiday weekend as meteorologists closely track a developing weather system off the coast of Mexico, according to the National Weather Service.
Forecasters Tuesday were closely monitoring a developing tropical system off the Baja California coast that could become a hurricane and potentially bring high surf, coastal flooding, rain and strong winds to Southern California over the holiday weekend. All eyes remain focused on the Labor Day holiday weekend period,
according to the National Weather Service. A hurricane is likely to develop by Wednesday or Thursday from the clump of clouds currently just off the Baja coast.
Once formed, the storm will likely move northwest through Saturday toward Southern California, but forecasters said there remains considerable uncertainty over its path after that.
By the end of this week, three hurricanes could be active at the same time, an extraordinary burst of tropical activity being driven by a historically strong El Niño and very warm ocean temperatures. Hurricane Karina rapidly intensified into a Category 4 major hurricane over the weekend, over 1000 miles west of Baja, California. Tropical Storm Lowell is expected to reach hurricane strength as early as Monday night and could move toward Hawaii. And a tropical disturbance (95E) well offshore of southwestern Mexico has a 90% chance of developing into yet another named storm this week. At least some weather models, though not most, have been showing a scenario in which the tropical storm or hurricane that emerges from 95E moves into Southern California over Labor Day weekend.
A tropical storm brewing off Mexico’s southern coast may develop into a hurricane as early as Sunday or Monday, Sebastian Westerink, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, said. As of the morning of Monday, Aug. 31, though, the direction of that tropical storm is uncertain, Westerink said. Whether it'll pan out something similar to what we saw with (Hurricane) Hilary a few years ago, or whether it would just be some light rain, is uncertain right now,
Westerink said. But we're definitely tracking it.
The storm has a 90% chance of strengthening into a hurricane, Westerink said. A system is classified as a hurricane when it reaches sustained winds of at least 74 mph, while tropical storms have sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.
Tracking Tropical Storm Marie and the Labor Day Weekend Forecast
A tropical disturbance near the southern tip of Baja California has meteorologists’ attention — as it has the potential to bring some rainfall and elevated surf to Southern California this upcoming weekend, authorities said. However, the National Weather Service says any valid prediction of what could come must wait until a tropical storm forms and starts moving. It’s very much in the air at this point, other than the elevated surf,
said Lauren Villafane, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. That’s the only thing we can say with any kind of certainty.
Meteorologists say if the storm stays closer to the coast, it could bring a 20% chance of rain over the weekend, along with some swells along the coast. If it drifts west, like Hurricane Karina over this past weekend, it wouldn’t have much more of an impact than sustained high humidity and elevated surf. This happens every year,
said Mike Wofford, another National Weather Service meteorologist. Off Mexico, they form, they move on the ocean and they go in different directions depending on what the upper pattern is.
Tropical Storm Marie is forecast to turn into Hurricane Marie by Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday. There’s high uncertainty over the path the storm will take, the National Weather Service office in San Diego said. The most likely scenario is that Marie will simply veer to the west, according to weather experts.
Computer Models, Ensemble Projections, and Forecaster Uncertainty
While some spaghetti models show the storm getting really close to SoCal, though the plots are spread out, meaning there is still some uncertainty in the forecast, other models show it continuing west out into the ocean, away from the coast. If the storm does make its way into SoCal, it could bring very heavy rain, gusty winds and high surf for Labor Day weekend. On Monday, the National Weather Service says there is a high chance of large waves and strong rip currents for Labor Day beachgoers.
Some forecast models show the storm continuing north and moving through Southern California by Labor Day or Tuesday, potentially producing significant rain and wind. Other projections have the system turning west and remaining well offshore, with little or no impact on the region. The NWS said projections indicate the heavy-rain scenario is the least likely, with only 5% to 10% showing 2 inches or more of rain.
While meteorologists are wrestling with what the National Weather Service described as a challenging Labor Day weekend forecast,
likeliehood for a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall in Southern California in a few days is small, forecasters say. The main message is that while significant winds and rain associated with a tropical storm is possible, it is the least likely outcome at this point,
a NWS bulletin reads. CBS LA meteorologists say current models show that the storm is still about six days out — leaving lots of variability between then and now. Only a minority of models are actually showing a tropical system reaching Southern California,
said CBS LA Weather Producer Patrick Wright. There's a lot that goes into a tropical storm, or system in general, making it to Southern California.