Dublin Airport is on course to exhaust its entire “fair share” carbon budget by 2034 as the Government moves to remove restrictions on further passenger growth, according to a new report on airport expansion across Europe. The analysis finds that allowing continued expansion at Dublin could increase annual carbon emissions associated with the airport by more than 65%.
Emissions Trajectory and Paris Agreement Thresholds
According to the new study, Dublin Airport has a remaining carbon allocation of roughly 27 million tonnes of CO2 from the present day until 2050. However, on the growth trajectory examined by the report, that entire allowance would be used up by 2034. This would result in the airport emitting more than two-and-a-half times the total emissions deemed consistent with keeping global warming to 1.7 degrees celsius—a target that is less strict than the 1.5-degree objective set out in the Paris Agreement. Compiled by the European clean transport research group Transport & Environment (T&E) and commissioned by Opportunity Green, the report is titled Off Track: Reckless expansion plans blow past European airports carbon limits.
Did You Know? Dublin Airport’s North Runway officially opened in August 2022, adding to the infrastructure capacity assessed in the recent European expansion report.
National Sector Pressures and Legislative Changes
The consequences of exceeding this carbon budget would also have implications for other sectors such as agriculture, industry, and heating. The report suggests that to offset the aviation sector’s excess within the general national carbon budget, these other industries might need to implement more significant emission reductions. These conclusions were released only a few months after the passing of legislation that permits the Minister for Transport to either increase or eliminate the long-standing cap of 32 million annual passengers at the airport. Furthermore, the legislation prevents a similar passenger restriction from subsequently being imposed through the planning system.
Opportunity Green stated that the Government was removing one of the few constraints on aviation growth precisely when Dublin was approaching the limits of its available carbon budget. “The findings in this report are shocking. Ireland cannot credibly claim climate leadership while simultaneously planning for continued growth in aviation emissions,” said Senior Manager of Opportunity Green Ireland Sorcha Tunney. She added that Ireland had “not simply loosening Dublin Airport’s passenger cap – it has legislated away the prospect of even having one.”
European Context and Technological Limits
Twenty major airports in ten different nations are evaluated in the report against a carbon budget intended to provide a 67% chance of limiting global warming to 1.7 degrees. It concludes that every airport examined would exceed its allocated budget under current expansion plans, even after factoring in projected improvements from more efficient aircraft and increased use of sustainable aviation fuels. “Increasing traffic volume by adding runways and extending terminals cancels out any benefits from cleaner fuels or efficient engines,” said Head of T&E’s Travel Smart campaign Denise Auclair, noting that no plausible tech improvement can close the gap in time.
Last year, Dublin Airport processed about 36.4 million passengers, which already exceeds the initial 32 million planning limit set by An Bord Pleanála in 2007 during the Terminal 2 development. While one planning application seeks a capacity of 40 million passengers per year, the airport’s two runways have been noted as potentially being able to handle up to 60 million passengers annually. The report calculates that allowing growth to 40 million passengers would generate approximately four million additional tonnes of CO2 above existing capacity. If passenger numbers reach 40 million by 2030 and subsequently increase to 60 million by 2050, cumulative additional emissions would rise to around 14 million tonnes of CO2.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is Dublin Airport projected to use up its carbon budget?
According to the report, Dublin Airport is on course to exhaust its entire carbon budget by 2034.
What is the remaining carbon allocation for Dublin Airport?
The report calculates the remaining carbon allocation at approximately 27 million tonnes of CO2 between now and 2050.
What passenger capacity levels were examined in relation to emissions?
The study reviewed growth trajectories including a capacity of 40 million passengers annually, as well as potential expansion up to 60 million passengers a year.
? How will Ireland balance its upcoming international presidency obligations with these projected aviation emission increases? ?