The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $3.97 on Tuesday, dropping below $4 for the first time since July, according to data from the American Automobile Association. Pump prices slid alongside global crude benchmarks as markets weighed seasonal demand drops and diplomatic talks concerning the Iran war.
The national drop brought the regular gasoline average down from $4.14 on Election Day, with state-level averages varying widely. North Carolina recorded the lowest state average at $3.26 per gallon, while drivers in California faced an average of $5.74 per gallon due to state fuel standards and refining reductions, according to AAA state-level data reported by Latin Times.
Crude Markets and Seasonal Blends Drive the Decline
The main driver behind the relief at the pump is the falling price of Brent crude oil, which dropped to about $90 a barrel, NPR reported. Brent crude fell roughly 17 percent over the week in its steepest seven-day slide since April 2020, as Latin Times noted.
BREAKING: US average retail gasoline price drops below $4 a gallon (to $3.9788) for the first time in 114 days. Despite the fall in prices, the average cost is still up ~30% from pre-war levels (but that's a lot better than a peak of ~53% increase set in May).
Analysts emphasized that the timing of the price drop, arriving just after the midterm elections, was driven by routine market factors rather than political shifts. Refineries completed their seasonal maintenance and ramped up output just as cooler weather reduced driving demand, alongside the nationwide regulatory transition to cheaper winter-blend gasoline.
“Many will assume the election had something to do with it, but that’s a myth,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in his industry newsletter. “For now, it’s the seasonal shift, not politics, driving the relief at the pump.”
GasBuddy showing the national average price of gasoline down to $3.936/gal, unless you're using Already-Aged Average data which is days behind. Should drop to $3.89 or so by weekend. Diesel down to $6.12/gal and should fall under $6 by Thanksgiving.
“President Trump was right—Iran did everything they could to drive up the price of oil before the midterm elections, and now prices are tumbling down,” a White House spokesperson told Newsweek.
Diesel Prices Remain Elevated Despite Falling Gasoline Costs
Global energy supplies also absorbed effects from the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which had restricted roughly 20 percent of world oil exports after the war began. U.S. and regional efforts subsequently helped restore oil flows through the key waterway.
US gasoline retail prices have a LOT of space to fall. Yes, rockets and feathers. Yet, judging by the very slow drop in retail prices vs the plunge in wholesale costs, the feather must be from a tiny hummingbird. Don't be surprised if the White House starts to apply pressure.
While regular gasoline dropped below the $4 threshold, commercial diesel prices remained elevated at $6.15 per gallon on Tuesday, down only slightly from $6.28 on Election Day, according to NBC News. Commercial fuel has outpaced gasoline increases significantly, remaining more than 70% higher since January due to a combination of the Iran war and persistent strikes on energy infrastructure within the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
“President Trump may see further military action as a way to regain negotiating leverage before Democrats take control of Congress in January,” Jorge León, head of geopolitics at Rystad Energy, wrote. “If we see renewed escalation, much of last week’s oil price decline could quickly reverse.”
The U.S. national average price of regular gasoline fell to $3.995 a gallon for the week of November 9, 2026, marking a decrease of 3.8% from $4.153 the previous week. This decline followed a peak national average of $4.478 on September 21, 2026, after which weekly readings consistently trended downward.
Alongside pump prices, the weekly average for West Texas Intermediate crude sat at $99.64 on November 3, down from an October 19 peak of $110.01 per barrel, while the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October to 337.476.
According to data from the American Automobile Association, national averages continued sliding from $4.367 a month prior. Regional disparities remained pronounced, with California reporting the highest statewide average at $5.71 per gallon. Industry forecasts from Fuel Price Atlas indicated that if geopolitical stability holds in the Middle East, winter-blend fuel availability could push the national pump average down to $3.86 by December 1 and $3.72 by January 1.
Analysts said that the downward trajectory aligns with historical autumn patterns, though Tom Kloza, an energy advisor for Gulf Oil, characterized the recent slide using the industry maxim that prices go up like a rocket and come down like a feather—though he described the current descent as “more of a wet feather.”
Refined product prices and availability moved in different directions. Phillips 66’s permanent closure of its 139,000-barrel-per-day Los Angeles refinery in late 2025 removed critical local production capacity just as the Iran conflict restricted supply.
Drone strikes throughout the summer and fall on Russian refinery infrastructure compounded global crude and diesel tightness. While diesel prices were projected by analysts to ease to $5.34 on December 1 and $5.05 by January 1 from earlier highs, restoration of pre-war global refining run levels and damaged infrastructure is not expected until 2028.
Political developments also shaped market sentiment during the post-election window. Citi commodities analysts observed that the period leading up to the seating of the new Democratic Congress on January 3 represents a lame-duck phase in Washington that could involve administrative personnel changes or accelerated foreign policy maneuvers.
Following White House meetings with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, President Trump said that Iran’s military capability was effectively over. Additional political pressure emerged as newly elected Democratic senators discussed proposals to suspend the 18.4-cent-per-gallon federal gas tax to provide further relief to American households.
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