Alternative for Germany Extends Lead Over Merz’s Parties

INSA Poll Results Show AfD Expanding National Lead

The Alternative for Germany party added one percentage point to reach 29% in the latest INSA survey commissioned by the tabloid Bild, according to DPA. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc—comprising the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU)—remains flat at 20% to 21% support across recent polling data from INSA and Infratest dimap.

Public dissatisfaction with the federal administration continues to shape these figures. According to INSA data, a record 77% of poll participants expressed dissatisfaction with Chancellor Merz’s performance during his first year in office, marking a six-point increase since April. Only 15% of respondents reported being satisfied with his work. Anti-immigrant sentiment and voter frustration over the ruling coalition’s response to the war in Iran and slow structural reforms are driving the party’s ongoing gains.

Regional Elections and Electoral Stakes in Lower Saxony

The national polling shift follows a major regional victory for the party. According to the original reporting, AfD secured a record share of the vote in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. On the day of the INSA survey release, voters in Lower Saxony headed to the polls to elect mayors, district administrators, and local councils.

While Lower Saxony’s local contests historically draw limited attention, the regional vote carries heightened weight following the Saxony-Anhalt outcome and ahead of upcoming elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20. Although AfD traditionally commands far stronger support in former East German states than in western regions like Lower Saxony—where it won a modest share at the district level in 2021—state party structures face intense scrutiny. Lower Saxony’s provincial branch remains under observation by domestic intelligence over suspected right-wing extremism, a designation the party is challenging in court, and four AfD candidates were barred from the ballot due to questions regarding their constitutional loyalty.

Did You Know?

Parties must clear a 5% national threshold to enter the German federal parliament. In recent INSA polling, smaller formations such as the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance each sit at 3% support, placing them below the threshold required for parliamentary representation.

Shifting Dynamics Among Left and Center Parties

The broader party landscape reflects deep fragmentation across traditional political lines. In the Infratest dimap findings, the Greens capture 15% support, while the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD)—the junior partner in the federal coalition government—holds 12% to 13%. The Left party follows closely at 11%.

During a party convention in Linstow, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Chancellor Merz warned that an ongoing AfD surge could trigger a major political upheaval. Merz told delegates that the upcoming September regional votes test whether center-ground democratic parties can effectively address the nation’s core challenges.

Frequently Asked Questions

When are the next federal elections in Germany?

The next federal elections in Germany are scheduled to take place on or before March 25, 2029.

What are the current polling numbers for the major German political parties?

Recent INSA polling cited by DPA places the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 29%, followed by the CDU/CSU conservative bloc at 20% to 21%, the Greens at 14% to 15%, the SPD at 12% to 13%, and The Left at 11%.

Why is the AfD under state intelligence observation?

State intelligence agencies have placed regional AfD branches under observation due to suspicions of right-wing extremism, though the party is actively challenging these measures through the court system.