Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is preparing for a high-stakes byelection in the Makerfield seat, a contest that allies suggest could determine the long-term trajectory of both the Labour party and the United Kingdom.
Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the north-west constituency later this week. However, those close to him warn of a difficult path to victory against Reform UK, the party led by Nigel Farage.
Reform UK secured more than 50% of the vote in local elections, and current polling indicates that Burnham holds only a marginal lead.
A Battle for the Labour Leadership
The outcome of the vote is expected to impact the immediate political future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Burnham has pledged to challenge Starmer for the leadership if he is elected in Makerfield.
Allies indicate that Starmer, after spending a weekend at Chequers, may be willing to stand aside if Burnham wins a clear mandate and no other challengers emerge.
Conversely, a loss for Burnham could leave Starmer in office but severely weakened following weeks of internal attacks from his own MPs. One ally described the situation as “perilous,” estimating Burnham’s chance of winning at approximately 45% or slightly more.
The EU and Immigration Divide
Reform UK is expected to focus its campaign on immigration and Brexit, capitalizing on internal Labour disagreements regarding EU membership. This tension was highlighted by comments from Wes Streeting, a potential leadership rival, who stated that Britain’s long-term future involves rejoining the union.
Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy dismissed Streeting’s views as “odd.” Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are expected to lay an amendment to the king’s speech on Wednesday calling for immediate talks on entering a customs union.
While Prime Minister Starmer has ruled out such an agreement, Streeting and other colleagues argue this stance has hindered government efforts to increase growth.
Strategic Risks and Timelines
Tom Baldwin, a former Labour official and biographer for Starmer, noted that adopting a hard line on immigration or opposing a closer relationship with Europe could make it harder for Burnham to win a future general election among the party’s progressive membership.
The timeline for the contest is tight. Applications to run for the seat close at midday on Monday, with a formal recommendation from Labour’s ruling executive committee expected on Thursday.
A vote in the Makerfield seat is likely to be held on or around June 18. This gives both Labour and Reform UK a four-week period to campaign in what could be one of the most consequential byelections in British political history.
While Downing Street maintained on Sunday that Starmer would stand again if challenged, friends suggest his position is softening. He is understood to have delayed a final decision until after the byelection results are clear.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Makerfield byelection likely to take place?
The vote is expected to be held on or around June 18.
What is the significance of the result for Keir Starmer?
A clear mandate for Andy Burnham could lead Starmer to stand aside from the leadership, while a Burnham loss might leave Starmer in office but politically wounded.
What are the primary issues expected to dominate the campaign?
The campaign is likely to focus heavily on immigration and the UK’s relationship with the European Union.
Do you believe a byelection result should determine the leadership of a national political party?
