Andy Burnham secured a decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election on Friday, winning 54% of the vote and increasing his majority to 9,231—nearly double the margin held by his predecessor, Josh Simons, in 2024. Following the win, Burnham declined to comment on his leadership ambitions, avoiding questions from reporters at a rally at Ashton Town FC before departing the venue, while his campaign manager, Louise Haigh, confirmed the campaign has a leadership plan ready if Prime Minister Keir Starmer does not step down.
The Path to Leadership
The scale of the victory has intensified pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer. According to Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary who managed the Makerfield campaign, the evidence suggests a leadership contest would be “unpleasant” and unlikely to result in a win for the Prime Minister. Haigh stated that the campaign has a leadership bid prepared should the Prime Minister refuse to vacate his position.
Despite the calls for a change in leadership, Prime Minister Starmer maintained his position on Friday morning. “If there is a contest, then yes, I will stand,” Starmer told broadcasters, noting that he would not walk away from the role. A No 10 adviser corroborated this stance, stating that there are still enough supporters backing the Prime Minister to “fight” and that he does not believe the current pressure constitutes a viable threat to his leadership.
Andy Burnham’s campaign team utilized the old Labour club in Stubshaw Cross as their headquarters throughout the election period. The venue remained operational during the campaign, hosting a variety of events including weddings, funerals, christenings, and birthday parties, all of which Burnham attended.
Political Context and Implications
The Makerfield result has drawn varied reactions from across the political spectrum. Wes Streeting, a former health secretary and rival leadership hopeful, congratulated Burnham on social media, noting that the campaign serves as “proof that to do so we need to change.” Meanwhile, Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform party, expressed disappointment in his party’s performance in the district. Although he noted that Reform’s vote share rose by 2.7 percentage points from the general election, he admitted that his expectations of 18,000 votes were not met, with the party finishing with just shy of 16,000.
The “interregnum” described following the victory suggests a shift in political gravity. By avoiding direct confrontation with the press, Burnham effectively signaled a challenge to the existing party hierarchy without triggering an immediate, formal declaration of war. The internal tension between Starmer’s call for party unity and the specific, organized readiness of the Burnham camp indicates a high-stakes period where the Prime Minister’s ability to retain support from the Parliamentary Labour Party will determine if this remains a “strange” transition or becomes a full-scale leadership crisis.
What Happens Next
The immediate future of the Labour Party depends on whether Prime Minister Starmer chooses to reflect on the Makerfield results over the weekend as suggested by Haigh. If the Prime Minister remains firm in his refusal to step down, the party could face a formal leadership contest. Conversely, if Starmer chooses to listen to the “soundings” from his cabinet and the Parliamentary Labour Party, the leadership could change through a transition rather than a contested vote. The next phase of this political shift will likely be defined by whether the Prime Minister can maintain the support of his inner circle against the growing momentum of the Burnham camp.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the margin of victory for Andy Burnham?
Burnham won the seat with a majority of 9,231, securing 54% of the total vote.
How did the Prime Minister respond to the election results?
Prime Minister Starmer characterized the victory as a “very good outcome” and urged the party to “pull together,” insisting that he would stand if a leadership contest occurred.
Did the Reform party perform as expected in the election?
No. Nigel Farage stated he was “disappointed,” noting that the party received just under 16,000 votes, falling short of his target of 18,000.
What specific policy changes do you believe would most effectively address the concerns raised by voters in this by-election?
