Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition faces a critical test in Negeri Sembilan as candidates submit nominations on July 18.
The Stakes for Pakatan Harapan and the DAP
PH is struggling to recover from significant losses in two recent state polls. The Democratic Action Party (DAP), the largest component of the coalition, suffered a major defeat in November’s Sabah state election, winning only one of 22 contested seats and losing all six it had previously held in 2020.
The DAP will hold its annual congress two weeks after the August 1 vote to decide its future within the Anwar administration. This internal referendum follows a leadership decision to give the unity government six months to implement reforms and restore trust among urban and non-Malay voters.
Did you know? The unity government was formed after Malaysia’s first-ever hung Parliament in 2022, forcing traditionally rival parties and coalitions to collaborate to maintain power.
BN and PAS: A Potential Malay Unity Pact
The opposition party PAS, which currently holds more elected representatives than any other party, has offered to cooperate with BN in Negeri Sembilan. This includes the possibility of backing a chief minister from UMNO.
This strategy mirrors a recent move in Johor on July 11. In that state, the PAS-led Perikatan Nasional (PN) contested only 33 of 56 wards, urging supporters to back BN candidates to ensure Malay-Muslim unity. The results were decisive:
- BN: Increased its haul from 40 to 48 seats.
- PH: Dropped from 12 to eight seats.
- Combined: BN and PN captured nine out of 10 votes in seats where Malays made up over 80% of the electorate.
While no official deal has been publicized for Negeri Sembilan, BN announced on July 15 that it would contest only 25 of the 36 seats. This move has caused friction within BN, specifically among Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) leaders who oppose a pact with the Islamist party.
Impact on the 16th General Election
A loss for PH in Negeri Sembilan could solidify an electoral pact between PN and BN for the national polls, due by early 2028. Because 123 of Malaysia’s 222 parliamentary seats are Malay-majority, such an alliance would likely be the favorite to win.
However, the alliance is not without internal conflict. According to Adib Zalkapli, managing director of Viewfinder Global Affairs, a crowded race among Malay parties could actually benefit Anwar Ibrahim. If Bersatu wins enough Malay votes, PH might still emerge as the largest bloc through pluralities in multi-cornered contests.
The Power Struggle within Perikatan Nasional
PAS is currently dominating the power struggle within PN. Former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia is being sidelined. In its place, PAS is likely to partner with Parti Wawasan Negara, a new party led by Hamzah Zainudin.
Analysis: The potential for a post-electoral split remains high. UMNO president and Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi, PN chairman Samsuri Mokhtar, and parliamentary opposition leader Hamzah Zainudin could all eventually vie for the premiership.
Comparing State Poll Performance
In 2023, Negeri Sembilan was part of a PH-BN pact that ensured only one candidate contested each seat. While PH installed chief ministers in three states during those polls, they did so with reduced majorities because BN candidates lost to PN rivals.
Negeri Sembilan was the exception where BN performed strongly, winning 14 of 16 contested seats. However, this success was partly attributed to support from PH voters. If BN exceeds 14 seats in the current cycle, it provides a strong incentive for the party to abandon PH and realign with PAS.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the Negeri Sembilan nominations?
Nominations take place on July 18.
Why is the DAP concerned about the results?
Following a poor showing in Sabah, the DAP is using the upcoming results to determine its continued participation in the Anwar administration.
What is the significance of the 123 parliamentary seats?
These are Malay-majority seats; a successful pact between BN and PN in these areas would likely secure a national victory.
Want more insights into Malaysian politics? Subscribe to our Asian Insider Malaysia Edition newsletter or leave a comment below to discuss how these state results will impact the 2028 general election.