Bangladesh’s Shifting Sands: Can a Student Movement Rewrite the Political Landscape?
In the summer of 2024, Bangladesh witnessed a seismic shift as a Gen-Z uprising toppled Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government. At the forefront of this revolution was Nahid Islam, a 26-year-old sociology student who, just months later, found himself navigating the complexities of interim governance and leading a new political party, the National Citizen’s Party (NCP). Now, as Bangladesh prepares for a pivotal election on February 12, 2026, the question remains: can this student-led movement translate into lasting political power, or will the nation revert to its established political order?
From Protests to Politics: The Rise of Nahid Islam
The catalyst for the 2024 uprising was a government job quota system perceived as unfair, reserving a significant portion of civil service positions for descendants of 1971 Liberation War veterans. This sparked protests that quickly escalated after a forceful crackdown by Sheikh Hasina’s security forces, resulting in an estimated 1,400 deaths. Nahid Islam emerged as a key voice, rallying a generation disillusioned with the existing political system. His call for change resonated across the nation, ultimately leading to Hasina’s departure.
Islam’s swift transition from student activist to cabinet advisor under Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus’s interim government was unexpected. He subsequently became the convener of the NCP, a party promising a “new political settlement” and a break from the country’s traditional dynastic politics.
The NCP’s Alliance and Internal Divisions
The NCP’s decision to forge an alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami, a party with a controversial history related to the 1971 Liberation War, has proven divisive. While Islam defends the move as a pragmatic electoral strategy, citing shared goals like combating corruption and protecting sovereignty, it has triggered a rift within the party. Many from the NCP’s liberal wing have departed, expressing concerns that the alliance compromises the party’s founding principles.
The alliance’s structure reveals a significant power imbalance: Jamaat-e-Islami is fielding candidates in 222 of the 300 contested constituencies, while the NCP has just 30. This raises questions about the NCP’s autonomy and its ability to shape the political agenda.
A Tight Race and the Potential for a Kingmaker Role
Recent polls suggest a closely contested election between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-led alliance. The International Republican Institute (IRI) put the BNP at 33 percent and Jamaat at 29 percent in early December 2025, while a joint survey by Projection BD, NarratiV, the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD), and the Jagoron Foundation showed similar results (34.7 percent and 33.6 percent, respectively). The NCP currently polls at around 6 percent.
Analysts believe that in a tight race, the NCP could play a crucial role, not necessarily by winning a large share of the vote, but by influencing the outcome and shaping post-election bargaining, particularly regarding the package of reforms initiated by the Yunus interim government.
The Challenges Ahead: Maintaining Identity and Delivering on Promises
Despite a warm reception during his campaign in Dhaka-11, a former Awami League stronghold, Nahid Islam faces a formidable opponent in MA Quayum, a veteran BNP leader. The NCP’s success hinges on its ability to capitalize on its popularity and leverage Jamaat’s organizational strength.
However, concerns remain about the NCP’s long-term viability. Critics argue that the party lacks a clear ideological foundation and has been overly reactive to events. We find also questions about Islam’s leadership and his ability to navigate the complex political landscape.
Islam acknowledges the challenges and has stated that if the NCP cannot develop the capacity to form a government within ten years, he will leave politics. He emphasizes the importance of delivering on the promises of reform and addressing the everyday concerns of the Bangladeshi people.
The Shadow of the Past: Jamaat-e-Islami’s Influence
The alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami raises concerns about the potential impact on women’s rights and minority rights. Jamaat’s leader, Shafiqur Rahman, has expressed views on women’s leadership that are at odds with modern progressive values. While Islam insists that the NCP will not compromise its core principles, critics fear that Jamaat’s influence could undermine the party’s commitment to inclusivity.
The NCP’s ability to restrain Jamaat and maintain its own identity will be a key test of its leadership and its commitment to the values that fueled the 2024 uprising.
FAQ
Q: What sparked the 2024 protests in Bangladesh?
A: The protests were triggered by a government job quota system that reserved a large share of civil service positions for specific groups, limiting opportunities for others.
Q: What role did Nahid Islam play in the 2024 uprising?
A: He emerged as a key leader of the student-led protests, rallying support and calling for the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Q: What is the National Citizen’s Party (NCP)?
A: It’s a new political party founded by Nahid Islam and other activists following the 2024 uprising, aiming to offer a “new political settlement” for Bangladesh.
Q: Why did the NCP form an alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami?
A: The NCP leadership views it as a pragmatic electoral strategy, citing shared goals like combating corruption and protecting sovereignty.
Q: What are the key issues in the upcoming 2026 election?
A: Key issues include political reform, economic development, and the role of religion in public life.
Did you know? The 2024 protests were Bangladesh’s first ever Gen-Z uprising, demonstrating the growing political power of young people in the country.
Pro Tip: Understanding the historical context of the 1971 Liberation War is crucial to understanding the current political dynamics in Bangladesh.
This election represents a critical juncture for Bangladesh. The outcome will determine whether the spirit of the 2024 uprising can be translated into lasting political change, or whether the nation will return to its established patterns of power. The NCP, led by Nahid Islam, stands at the center of this debate, facing the challenge of navigating a complex political landscape and delivering on the promises of a new era.
Explore further: Read more about the challenges facing the Awami League and learn about the key players in the 2026 election.
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