BBVA’s Turkish Gambit: Can Garanti BBVA Fuel a New Rally?
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) saw record profits recently, but the market hasn’t responded with a corresponding surge in its stock price. Investors are seeking further justification for another upward phase. Now, analysts at UBS believe the answer may lie in Turkey, specifically with BBVA’s subsidiary, Garanti BBVA.
The Turkish Turnaround
For BBVA, Turkey has been a complex market. The previous Turkish government’s unorthodox monetary policy led to hyperinflation, forcing the bank to make significant accounting adjustments. However, the tide appears to be turning. The Turkish central bank has begun to adopt a more orthodox approach, maintaining an official interest rate of 50% in 2025 and initiating cuts as inflation allows. As of January 2026, the reference rate stands at 37%, following cumulative cuts of 250 basis points in December and January.
Economists predict the country could exit hyperinflation by 2028, a shift that UBS believes could dramatically alter market perception of Garanti BBVA.
Garanti BBVA: The Engine for Growth?
UBS estimates that Garanti BBVA could contribute approximately 25% of BBVA’s expected profit growth in the coming years, assuming the current scenario holds. This potential is linked to the changing economic landscape in Turkey and the possibility of moving away from hyperinflation accounting under IFRS standards, potentially by 2028.
Garanti Bank is currently the second-largest private bank in Turkey, with approximately ₺220 billion in assets as of the end of 2023. It offers a full range of financial services, including retail, commercial, and investment banking.
Current Market Position
As of 10:21 AM on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, BBVA was trading around €20.01, up 1.16%. Although a rebound is underway, the stock needs to consolidate levels to convince the market it’s more than just a correction.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Major Resistance: The upper zone of the gap, near €21.9.
- Short-Term Operational Support: €19.6–€19.8.
- Monitoring Level: €19.82. falling below this level could increase the risk of another downward trend.
- Further Support: €19.0 and €18.0.
In a volatile banking environment, daily closing prices and how the stock reacts to support levels are crucial.
What to Observe
The outlook improves if the price remains above €19.6–€19.8 and continues to pressure €21.9. The market is closely watching Garanti BBVA’s performance as a potential catalyst for BBVA’s next phase of growth.
FAQ
Q: What is Garanti BBVA?
A: Garanti BBVA is BBVA’s subsidiary in Turkey, and the second-largest private bank in the country.
Q: What is driving the potential for growth at Garanti BBVA?
A: A shift towards a more orthodox monetary policy in Turkey and the potential end of hyperinflation are key factors.
Q: What percentage of BBVA’s profit growth could Garanti BBVA contribute?
A: UBS estimates Garanti BBVA could contribute around 25%.
Q: What are the key price levels to watch for BBVA stock?
A: Key levels include resistance at €21.9 and support between €19.6-€19.8.
Did you know? Garanti BBVA surpassed TL 1 trillion in sustainable finance as of January 2026.
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