A severe weather phenomenon known as a “Tormenta Negra” is approaching Mexican territory, according to the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) of the Comisión Nacional del Agua (Conagua). The system brings heavy and intense rainfall expected to last for 48 hours, alongside strong winds, electrical storms, and hail. Residents across multiple regions face severe atmospheric instability driven by interacting weather systems.
Atmospheric Drivers and Regional Impacts
For Tuesday, the Mexican monsoon and atmospheric instability over the northwestern part of the country will prompt heavy to very heavy rains accompanied by electrical discharges and wind gusts in Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, and Sinaloa. Meanwhile, a cyclonic circulation and troughs in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, combined with tropical wave number 37 moving across southeastern Mexico, will cause intense point rains in southern and southeastern Guanajuato. This activity will also bring showers and heavy to very heavy rains with electrical discharges to the western, central, northeastern, eastern, southern, and southeastern regions of Mexico, including the Yucatán Peninsula, according to the SMN.
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Weather conditions will shift slightly on Wednesday as the Mexican monsoon persists over the northwest alongside internal low-pressure channels. These factors, interacting with cyclonic circulations, atmospheric troughs, and the ongoing passage of tropical wave 37 over the southern and western territories, will maintain high probabilities for showers and heavy to very heavy rains with electrical discharges. The western and central parts of the country may also experience hail, with intense point rains forecast for areas in Baja California Sur, Sonora, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima. Additionally, a new tropical wave, number 38, will approach and cross the Yucatán Peninsula and southeastern Mexico, reinforcing the likelihood of precipitation in those zones.
Did You Know? A storm forms primarily from clouds of great vertical development known as cumulonimbus, which can reach more than 10 kilometers in height and feature strong internal air currents that generate intense rain, lightning, and hail.
Heatwaves and Coastal Conditions
Despite widespread rainfall, hot to very hot conditions will continue across the northern part of the country, along the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico littorals, and across the Yucatán Peninsula. A heatwave persists in central and southern Sinaloa, central, southern, and eastern Nuevo León, and western Tamaulipas, with high temperatures expected to expand to northeastern Baja California by Wednesday.
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Maximum temperatures are forecasted to reach between 40 and 45 °C in northeastern Baja California, northwestern Sonora, northeastern Chihuahua, northern Coahuila, eastern Nuevo León, and northwestern and western Tamaulipas. In contrast, minimum temperatures of 0 to 5 °C are expected in the mountainous zones of Chihuahua, Durango, the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, and Puebla. Wind gusts ranging from 40 to 60 km/h are projected for Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, and Yucatán, while coastal areas will see wave heights between 1.5 and 2.5 meters off the western Baja California peninsula and 1.0 to 2.0 meters due to mar de fondo along the coasts from Nayarit to Chiapas.
Local Forecast for Saltillo
For Saltillo, the forecast for Tuesday indicates a minimum temperature of 17 °C and a maximum of 27 °C with a probability of rain. On Wednesday, temperatures are expected to reach a maximum of 28 °C and a minimum of 17 °C. Finally, Thursday’s forecast shows a high of 29 °C and a low of 17 °C.
Frequently Asked Questions
What causes the intense rainfall and storms across Mexico?
The severe weather is driven by the Mexican monsoon, tropical wave number 37, upcoming tropical wave number 38, cyclonic circulations, and atmospheric troughs interacting across the country, according to the SMN.
Which regions face the highest risk of intense rainfall?
Southern and southeastern Guanajuato are slated for intense point rains between 75 and 150 mm, with numerous other states facing very heavy rains, strong winds, and electrical storms over the 48-hour period.
Are high temperatures affecting the entire country during the storms?
No, while heavy rains affect many regions, hot to very hot conditions persist in the north, along the coastal littorals, and the Yucatán Peninsula, with active heatwaves continuing in parts of Sinaloa, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and eventually northeastern Baja California.
What precautions are you taking in your region to prepare for the predicted heavy rains and high winds?
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