Black Stroke Risk Rising Faster Than White People’s

Stroke risk factors including high blood pressure and diabetes are rising faster among people from Black African and Caribbean backgrounds compared with white populations, according to a 30-year analysis from the South London Stroke Register. Researchers at King’s College London evaluated data from more than 8,500 adults to track cardiovascular disparities over time, revealing that Black African individuals are twice as likely to experience a stroke without a prior risk factor diagnosis.

Rising Stroke Risk Factors in Black African and Caribbean Communities

Data from the South London Stroke Register—one of the longest-running population-based stroke registers globally—indicates sharp increases in pre-stroke conditions among ethnic minority groups. According to the study, diabetes was about twice as common in Black Caribbean and Black African participants compared with white participants. High blood pressure, or hypertension, showed similar disparities, registering 29% more prevalent in Black Caribbean individuals and 47% more prevalent in Black African individuals.

While diabetes rates climbed across all ethnic groups over the 30-year study window, they surged most rapidly among Black African participants. Rates in this group rose from 21% between 1995 and 2004 up to 41% between 2015 and 2024.

Call for Earlier Primary Prevention and Revised Screening Ages

Dr Eva Emmett, a research fellow at King’s College London and lead author of the study, noted that the findings demand targeted action. “Our study shows that the prevalence of pre-stroke hypertension and diabetes is higher and increasing faster in ethnic minority and lower socioeconomic groups,” Dr Emmett said. She added that Black people experience strokes at a younger age and face a higher likelihood of having a stroke without a prior risk factor diagnosis.

Currently, NHS health checks screening for hypertension and diabetes begin at age 40. However, Dr Emmett pointed out that this threshold may arrive too late for higher-risk groups who often experience strokes earlier in life. She called for universal improvements in cardiovascular risk detection alongside targeted strategies like lowering the screening age for vulnerable populations.

Socioeconomic Disparities Compound Cardiovascular Risks

The King’s College London analysis also uncovered significant socioeconomic divides among participants. Diabetes prevalence ran 23% higher in participants working manual occupations—such as bus drivers, security guards, and plumbers—compared to those in non-manual jobs like teachers and nurses. Lower education levels also correlated with a 21% higher prevalence of diabetes.

Over the study period, diabetes diagnoses increased across all socioeconomic tiers, but the steepest climbs occurred among individuals in routine and manual jobs and those with lower education levels. High blood pressure rates followed a parallel trajectory, spiking most sharply among those with lower socioeconomic status.

Dr Maëva May, director of policy at the Stroke Association, emphasized that the data highlights systemic gaps in preventative care. “Too many people from Black African and Black Caribbean communities, and those living in more deprived circumstances, are developing stroke risk factors earlier and are experiencing stroke before those risks have even been identified,” Dr May said. She stressed that strokes are not inevitable and that prevention relies on early access to care.

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