The Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) has officially projected that Indonesia’s peak dry season will occur between July and September 2026. This period is expected to be longer and drier than the historical average, driven by a persistent El Nino phenomenon that may last until early 2027. Authorities are urging immediate cross-sectoral preparations to mitigate risks to water supplies, public health, and food security.
Peak Dry Season Timeline and Affected Regions
According to BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani, the peak of the dry season will hit in stages, affecting nearly 86 percent of Indonesia’s total land area over three months. In July, 83 Zona Musim (ZOM)—representing 12.26 percent of the country—will experience peak conditions, including parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java, and Papua. The intensity peaks in August, covering 369 ZOM or 48.84 percent of the land, followed by 169 ZOM in September.
Data from the BMKG indicates that the impact is already underway. By the end of May 2026, 200 ZOM had already entered the dry season. An additional 198 ZOM are expected to follow throughout June, encompassing large portions of Sumatra, Kalimantan, and parts of Java, including the southern region of DKI Jakarta.
The BMKG has calculated a 98 percent probability that the current El Nino phenomenon will reach a moderate intensity and a 62 percent chance it will hit a strong intensity, with the potential to persist into the start of 2027.
El Nino and Sectoral Risks
The convergence of the dry season with the El Nino phenomenon poses significant challenges for national infrastructure and public health. BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan noted that the dry conditions are likely to impact water availability and energy production, particularly for hydroelectric power plants (PLTA) that rely on dam water levels. Beyond energy, there is a heightened risk of respiratory infections due to declining air quality and an increased threat of forest and land fires (karhutla).
The decision to prioritize agricultural adaptation—such as switching to drought-resistant crop varieties with shorter growth cycles—suggests that planners are bracing for a prolonged water deficit. The reliance on situational interventions like the Weather Modification Operation (OMC) highlights the urgency of managing atmospheric volatility in real-time, moving away from static seasonal expectations toward dynamic, responsive management.
What May Happen Next
As the dry season progresses through October, government agencies and stakeholders are expected to increase coordination to prevent large-scale fires. Plt. Deputy for Meteorology Andri Ramdhani confirmed that the government will implement the Weather Modification Operation (OMC) on a situational basis, adjusting to atmospheric dynamics within windows of up to 10 days. Regional authorities are also being tasked with establishing rapid response mechanisms to manage public health risks and ensure water distribution networks remain operational for local communities.
Frequently Asked Questions
What should the agricultural sector do to prepare?
The BMKG recommends that farmers adjust their planting schedules and select drought-resistant crop varieties that require less water and have shorter growth cycles.
How is the government addressing the risk of forest fires?
The government is coordinating with local stakeholders to strengthen prevention efforts, which includes the deployment of the Weather Modification Operation (OMC) based on real-time atmospheric conditions.
Where can citizens find verified information regarding the dry season?
The BMKG urges the public to consult official channels—including their social media accounts and local offices—to avoid misinformation that could cause unnecessary public panic.
How are you and your community preparing for the anticipated water shortages during this year’s extended dry season?
