Toronto’s mayoral race has entered the home stretch ahead of the October 26 election, with a new Liaison Strategies survey showing incumbent Olivia Chow holding a strong lead at 50 per cent of decided and leaning voters among 53 hopefuls, while closest challenger Brad Bradford stands at 39 per cent, Chris Alexander at 10 per cent, and two per cent backing someone else.
The Latest Polling Data and Candidate Standings
According to the Liaison Strategies survey of 1,000 Torontonians conducted Friday and Saturday, Mayor Chow’s support ticked up slightly after holding steady since the spring. Past polls by the firm showed a rapid rise in support through the fall and winter for Bradford, the city councillor for Beaches-East York. However, Bradford’s ascent slowed in the spring, and since July his numbers have hovered around 40 per cent. Support for Alexander, a former federal Conservative cabinet minister, remained fairly constant after he entered the race on July 29. Liaison principal David Valentin noted that the survey carries an accuracy margin within 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
Additional polling figures offer further context on voter sentiment. In a separate survey reported by Forum Research on Zoomer Radio’s Fight Back with Libby Znaimer, Chris Alexander debuted with 11 per cent of the vote. Lorne Bozinoff of Forum Research explained that half of Alexander’s support came from voters previously uncommitted to the main camps, while the rest predominantly drew from Bradford’s base. That same Forum survey positioned Olivia Chow leading at 47 per cent, with Bradford dropping to 32 per cent from 36 per cent prior to Alexander’s entry.
Did You Know? Before the October 26 election, Mayor Chow introduced a surprise motion at city council offering free Toronto Island ferry rides for children aged 19 and under and seniors 65 and older throughout August, saving families from standard round-trip fares of $4.50 for children and $6.15 for youth and seniors.
Campaign Strategies, Affordability, and Criticisms
As the final dash to election day unfolds, candidates are sharpening their approaches around affordability, crime, and transit. Valentin pointed out that polling consistently shows residents across Toronto remain most focused on cost-of-living issues. Chow is expected to pledge further affordability measures while leveraging her ability to work with Premier Doug Ford—building on the city’s new financial deal—alongside her willingness to challenge him on items like bike lanes.
Bradford has anchored his campaign on crime, congestion, and cost of living, accusing Chow of leaving the city “stuck.” In a statement responding to his stalled poll numbers, Bradford’s campaign pointed to “higher costs, longer commutes, feeling less safe” under Chow, adding that they are entering the final two months with momentum. Meanwhile, advocacy group Progress Toronto has criticized Bradford’s policy reversals on bike lanes and police funding, while Valentin suggested that social media posts from the group urging support for Chow while attacking Bradford may have contributed to stalling Bradford’s momentum.
Expert Insight: Navigating the final weeks of a municipal campaign requires candidates to balance broad pocketbook messaging against detailed policy records. Observers note that while front-runners defend their records, challengers must simultaneously expand their core base and overcome unfavorable impressions without alienating undecided voters.
TMU politics professor emeritus Myer Siemiatycki observed that Bradford’s combative style and criticism of Chow’s upbeat approach may hinder his growth beyond his core base, remarking that his adversarial stance and policy reversals make expansion difficult.
What May Happen Next
With the final phase of the campaign under way, debates, campaign events, and heightened voter attention could give Chow’s opponents an opportunity to erode her lead. Conversely, the front-runner may use the upcoming stretch to build on her numbers. Analysts expect candidates to put forward more pocketbook policies as voters evaluate the contenders closely ahead of October 26.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the latest Liaison Strategies survey show about voter support?
The survey of 1,000 Torontonians showed Olivia Chow leading with 50 per cent of decided and leaning voters, Brad Bradford at 39 per cent, Chris Alexander at 10 per cent, and two per cent supporting other candidates.
How has Chris Alexander’s entry affected the race?
According to Forum Research figures reported on Zoomer Radio, Alexander debuted with 11 per cent support, drawing voters from uncommitted pools and siphoning more support away from Brad Bradford than from Olivia Chow.
What issues are driving voter focus in the final weeks?
Polling indicates that Torontonians remain most focused on affordability, crime, congestion, and cost of living as candidates head into the final dash toward the October 26 election.
How will economic pressures and affordability pledges shape voter decisions in the remaining weeks of the campaign?