BTC Closes Above 100-Day MA as Bulls Eye Breakout

Breaking the Cycle: What the Recent BTC Breakout Actually Means

Bitcoin has finally shifted its narrative. After a prolonged period of consolidation and a stubborn bearish trend, the asset has achieved a critical technical milestone: closing above the 100-day moving average and escaping a long-term descending channel.

For the seasoned trader, this isn’t just a price bump; it is a structural shift. When Bitcoin breaks a multi-month descending channel, it typically signals that the sellers have exhausted their momentum and a recent phase of price discovery is beginning.

The 100-Day Moving Average as a New Floor

The reclamation of the 100-day moving average, currently sitting in the $72k zone, transforms a previous ceiling into a potential floor. In bullish cycles, this metric often acts as a dynamic support level, providing a safety net for investors during short-term pullbacks.

Current momentum is supported by a climbing Relative Strength Index (RSI). With readings pushing toward 70, the market is showing strong bullish conviction without yet hitting the overbought territory that usually triggers a sharp correction.

The Psychology of the ‘Underwater’ Holder

Whereas technicals look promising, the real story is hidden in the on-chain data. Currently, 64.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is in profit, but the remaining 35.8% tells a cautionary tale of market psychology.

A significant portion of this underwater supply was acquired between $80k and $125k during the distribution phase of late 2025. As Bitcoin approaches these levels, we enter the breakeven zone.

This is a psychologically volatile area. Investors who have held through losses for months often feel an intense urge to sell the moment they return to their entry price, creating a wall of selling pressure known as overhead supply.

Mapping the Road to $100K: Key Milestones

To reach the psychological milestone of $100,000, Bitcoin must clear several hurdles. The immediate battleground is the $80k supply zone, a level that has capped growth since February.

Once $80k is cleared, the path opens toward the 200-day moving average near $85k and eventually the $90k mark. However, the most critical indicator for a sustained rally is the supply-in-profit threshold.

The 75–80% Profit Pivot

Historically, when the percentage of supply in profit crosses the 75–80% mark, the overhead pressure from previous losers diminishes. At this point, the majority of holders are in the green, and the market shifts from recovery mode to expansion mode.

Currently, at 64.2%, Bitcoin is still in the recovery phase. Crossing that 75% threshold would likely accelerate the move toward new all-time highs, as the pool of forced sellers shrinks and institutional demand takes over.

For more insights on market structure, you can explore our guide on Bitcoin price analysis or check the latest data on Glassnode for real-time on-chain metrics.

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