Bulgaria’s Export Decline: A Three-Year Trend and What It Means for 2026
For the third consecutive year, Bulgarian exports have experienced a downturn. Newly released data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) reveals that Bulgarian companies exported goods worth 83.9 billion leva in 2025, a 3.2% decrease compared to 2024. This continues a worrying trend, following a 0.2% decline in 2024 and a more significant 6.5% drop in 2023.
The Impact of Global Events and Shifting Markets
The ongoing war in Ukraine is cited as a contributing factor to this sustained decline, impacting market stability and trade routes. However, a more concerning aspect is the disproportionate decrease in exports to European Union countries – Bulgaria’s primary trading partners. Data from the NSI, current as of November 2025, shows a 4.6% reduction in exports to the EU, totaling approximately 50 billion leva. Exports to non-EU countries experienced a smaller decrease of 2.2%.
Key EU Partners Show Weakness
Within the EU, Germany and Italy experienced the most significant drops in Bulgarian exports, both registering a 7.5% decline. Exports to France also decreased, falling by 4.8%. Greece showed minimal change, while Romania bucked the trend with a 5.3% increase. These five countries – Germany, Romania, Italy, Greece, and France – collectively account for 64.3% of Bulgaria’s exports to EU member states.
Beyond the EU: Mixed Results
Exports to countries outside the EU fell by 2.2% in 2025, reaching 30 billion leva. Reductions were observed in trade with the United States, Serbia, North Macedonia, China, and the United Kingdom. Turkey, representing the largest share of Bulgarian exports outside the EU at 5.856 billion leva, remained relatively stable. Notably, Algeria saw a substantial increase in Bulgarian exports, exceeding 20% to reach 1.232 billion leva.
Sectoral Performance: Fuels and Machinery Lead the Decline
The most substantial decrease in exports was recorded in the fuels sector, with a 26% reduction in value, including a 13% drop to EU countries. This decline is largely attributed to reduced production and exports from the Burgas refinery, “Lukoil Neftohim,” following a parliamentary decision in the summer of 2025 to restrict diesel fuel exports as a measure against perceived price speculation ahead of Euro adoption.
Machinery and equipment, traditionally Bulgaria’s leading export category with sales of 18 billion leva, also experienced a slight decrease of 1.6% (2.2% to the EU). Manufacturers are facing increasing challenges in securing external markets. However, exports of certain agricultural and food products showed positive growth, including sunflower seeds and oil, as well as grain.
Growing Trade Deficit Fuels Concerns
Despite the overall decline in exports, imports to Bulgaria increased by 6.1% in 2025, reaching 105.6 billion leva compared to 2024. This widening gap resulted in a record-high trade deficit of 21.7 billion leva. This trend is linked to increased domestic consumption, driven by administrative wage increases in the public sector, while export-oriented Bulgarian companies navigate a more challenging business environment.
FAQ
Q: What is the main reason for the decline in Bulgarian exports?
A: The war in Ukraine and a decrease in demand from key EU trading partners are major contributing factors.
Q: Which sector experienced the largest drop in exports?
A: The fuels sector saw the most significant decline, with a 26% reduction in value.
Q: Did any sectors experience growth in exports?
A: Exports of certain agricultural and food products, such as sunflower seeds and oil, and grain, increased.
Q: What is the current trade deficit for Bulgaria?
A: The trade deficit reached a record high of 21.7 billion leva in 2025.
Q: Which country saw the largest increase in Bulgarian exports?
A: Algeria experienced a significant increase in Bulgarian exports, exceeding 20%.
Did you know? The parliamentary decision to restrict diesel fuel exports from “Lukoil Neftohim” was intended to stabilize fuel prices before the introduction of the Euro.
Pro Tip: Bulgarian exporters should diversify their markets and focus on high-value-added products to mitigate the risks associated with reliance on a limited number of trading partners.
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