Indonesia’s state food agency Bulog reports that national rice supplies remain secure with an estimated availability of 25 million to 26 million tons, despite warnings from the weather agency BMKG that a strong El Niño pattern will persist into early 2027. Bulog President Director Ahmad Rizal Ramdhani confirmed on Monday that the agency has procured 3.5 million metric tons of paddy as of early August to buffer against potential production declines.
Bulog Rice Reserves vs. National Consumption
National rice availability currently outweighs estimated consumption, which sits at approximately 22 million tons. According to Ahmad Rizal Ramdhani, Bulog’s specific rice stocks have approached 5.4 million tons. This figure includes supplies held by catering businesses, hotels, and restaurants, as well as crops still in the fields.
Rizal stated that these reserves are sufficient to meet public needs through March, even if the forecasted weather patterns disrupt harvests. He noted that the agency has already reported these procurement levels to the president, the coordinating minister, and the agriculture minister.
Did you know? Bulog has reached 87.4% of its current procurement target, totaling 3.5 million tons of paddy as of early August.
BMKG El Niño Forecast and Production Risks
The weather agency BMKG forecasts that the 2026 El Niño will continue into early 2027. The agency expects the intensity to range from strong to very strong, with the peak impact occurring between December 2026 and January 2027.
Rizal acknowledged that harvested acreage is expected to shrink over the next three months, which typically leads to a decline in rice production. To counter this, the government is implementing a program to distribute improved rice seeds across 1 million hectares. This initiative aims to increase productivity from an average of 5-6 tons per hectare to between 10 and 12.8 tons per hectare.
Paddy Procurement Strategy Through December
Bulog intends to continue buying paddy from farmers well beyond its immediate targets. The agency expects to hit a 4-million-ton procurement goal by the end of September. However, Rizal clarified that procurement will not stop at that milestone.
“After we absorb 4 million tons by the end of September, we will continue procurement in October, November, December, and beyond,” Rizal said, emphasizing that farmers should not hesitate to sell their yields to the state agency.
| Metric | Data Point |
|---|---|
| Total National Availability | 25 – 26 Million Tons |
| Estimated National Consumption | ~22 Million Tons |
| Bulog Current Paddy Procurement | 3.5 Million Tons (87.4% of target) |
| Projected Seed Yield Increase | 5-6 tons $rightarrow$ 10-12.8 tons/hectare |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Indonesia facing a rice shortage due to El Niño?
According to Bulog President Director Ahmad Rizal Ramdhani, supplies remain secure. National availability (25-26 million tons) exceeds consumption (22 million tons).
When will the peak of the El Niño impact occur?
BMKG forecasts the peak impact will occur from December 2026 to January 2027.
How is the government offsetting the decline in harvested acreage?
The government is distributing improved rice seeds across 1 million hectares to boost productivity per hectare from 5-6 tons to as high as 12.8 tons.
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