Following a 59-point Week 1 offensive explosion against the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has seen his NFL Most Valuable Player odds skyrocket to the top tier, positioning him as a strong contender in the 2026 season.
Caleb Williams Vaults Into Top MVP Contenders After Week 1
The Chicago Bears opened their season with a commanding 59-37 blowout victory against the Carolina Panthers, shifting early-season betting markets across the league. Quarterback Caleb Williams delivered a standout performance, completing 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns while adding 65 yards and two scores on the ground. Oddsmakers at BetMGM adjusted Williams’ odds from +1600 down to +750, placing him firmly in the top three of the MVP race. Caesar Sports numbers cited by the outlet showed an even sharper leap for the second-year signal-caller, moving from +1500 to +850. Entering the season, eight players had better odds. UP & Adams host Kay Adams explicitly predicted that Williams would challenge top tier veterans like Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson for the league’s highest individual honor. 2026, I think, is like the main course, not the appetizer,
Adams stated on her show. For the Bears, Adams noted they were a game away from being in the NFC Championship last year, featuring the 29th-ranked defense and an offense that wasn’t always consistent. Adams suggested that last year was just a little aperitif for Caleb Williams, serving as something that needed to happen for him to have the offseason he did to lean out, refocus, rededicate, and go through a bit of heartbreak to get him on the path for what’s bigger and better. The leap in odds also follows a historic 2025 campaign where Williams broke the Bears single-season passing record with 3,942 yards and accounted for 30 total touchdowns while capturing an NFC North title for the first time since 2018. For Williams to surpass the current MVP odds list, he’d have to cross 4,000 passing yards, a feat that has never happened in Chicago.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson Hold Strong at the Top of the Market
While Williams made the largest jump of the opening week, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen maintained his grip as the overall favorite. Allen entered the season as the favorite to win MVP and kept himself in that spot with a crazy performance in a comeback win over the Houston Texans. His odds improved from +600 to +500, while DraftKings pegged his standing at +500 as well. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson kept pace right behind the leaders. Other prominent names saw their numbers shift in Week 1, including Justin Herbert moving from +1000 to +1800, Patrick Mahomes moving from +1200 to +1600, Brock Purdy shifting from +1900 to +1300, and Matthew Stafford moving from +1400 to +1800 (with his odds dropping to +2000 at other outlets following the Rams’ Week 1 loss to the 49ers). Kay Adams also made her Super Bowl LXI prediction clear, stating that her matchup features the Denver Broncos and the Chicago Bears. Both Caleb Williams and Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix were first-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.
| Quarterback | Team | Updated MVP Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | +500 |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | +700 |
| Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | +700 |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | +1000 |
| Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | +1300 |
Defensive Injuries and Division Shifts Shape Early Futures
The opening week also created immediate shockwaves across other major futures markets. Cleveland Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett would undergo surgery and be placed on injured reserve, breaking the Defensive Player of the Year field wide open. With two DPOYs in the last three years, the reigning winner was favored to take home the award a third time with +400 odds entering the season, but after his lackluster performance against the 49ers and subsequent move to the IR, which will guarantee he misses at least the next four games, Garrett tumbled to +4000. Rams coach Sean McVay said Monday he didn’t have a timeline for when Garrett will return. Houston Texans star Will Anderson Jr. is the new favorite at +350, followed closely by Aidan Hutchinson at +450, T.J. Watt (+900), Maxx Crosby (+1100), and Nik Bonitto (+1200) rounding out the top five.
Williams’ odds weren’t the only to benefit from Chicago’s offensive explosion against the Carolina Panthers. Ben Johnson’s odds to win Coach of the Year moved from +1500 (tied for sixth) to +800, trailing only John Harbaugh (+500) and Jesse Minter (+700). The Bears’ team odds to win the tough NFC North leaped the Packers for second-best (+210) behind the Lions, and their playoff odds shortened from -105 to -150. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears selected safety Dillon Thieneman with the 25th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Related reading