The race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom in California remains highly competitive with just over three months until the primary election. A recent poll indicates a remarkably close contest among the leading candidates.
A Crowded and Competitive Field
The Public Policy Institute of California released a poll revealing that five candidates are within four percentage points of one another. Former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell, and hedge fund founder Tom Steyer are leading among the Democrats. On the Republican side, conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco are at the forefront.
According to the poll, Hilton had the support of 14% of likely voters, Porter 13%, Bianco 12%, Swalwell 11%, and Steyer 10%. One in ten likely voters remain undecided. The two candidates receiving the most votes in the June primary will advance to the November general election.
Concerns About Democratic Vote Splitting
With nine Democrats competing for the governorship, concerns are rising that the vote will be divided, potentially allowing the two Republican candidates to advance to the general election. No Republican has held statewide office in California since 2006.
Recent polls have shown Republicans placing first or second, with Hilton and Bianco frequently occupying those positions. Support for Hilton and Bianco has remained steady since a December poll, while support for Porter and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has declined.
The Role of Affordability and Campaign Spending
Voters’ concerns about affordability are a major factor in the race, with nearly two-thirds of likely voters, and 78% of young voters, citing it as critical to their decision. Tom Steyer, a billionaire hedge-fund founder, has already donated $47.4 million of his own wealth to his campaign.
San José Mayor Matt Mahan entered the race in late January and has already raised $7.3 million, with an additional $4.8 million being spent by an independent expenditure committee supporting his bid. Mahan recently toured Pacific Palisades, focusing on rebuilding efforts following a January 2025 wildfire.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is California’s primary system?
California uses a “top-two” primary system, meaning the two candidates who receive the most votes in the June primary, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the November general election.
What is the biggest issue for voters in this election?
According to the Public Policy Institute of California poll, affordability is the biggest issue for voters, with nearly two-thirds of likely voters and 78% of young voters considering it critical.
Who are the leading candidates in the race?
The five leading candidates are former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell, hedge fund founder Tom Steyer, conservative commentator Steve Hilton, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
As the primary election approaches, it remains to be seen which candidates will resonate most with California voters and ultimately compete for the governorship.
