Canada and Alberta announce $35B-$44B pipeline to shift oil exports from US to Asia

Pipeline Route and Projected Costs

The proposed infrastructure project is slated to run from Bruderheim, Alberta, to the Roberts Bank export terminal in Delta, B.C., largely following the existing corridor occupied by the federally owned Trans Mountain pipeline. According to the Alberta government’s submission to the federal government’s Major Projects Office, the initiative carries an estimated price tag between $35.2 billion and $43.7 billion, a figure that includes necessary contingencies.

Construction timelines remain ambitious, with the government eyeing a start date as early as 2027 and completion by 2034. As reported by CBC, the exact breakdown of funding and the specific financial burden to be placed on taxpayers remains to be negotiated. This project follows the historical precedent of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project, which faced significant cost escalations—ultimately reaching over $30 billion—before its completion. The Major Projects Office, which oversees federal regulatory reviews, will be tasked with navigating the environmental impact assessments required for a project of this scale, a process that historically involves rigorous scrutiny from the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada.

Ownership Structure and Industry Partnerships

The project structure relies on a partnership between the federal government, the province of Alberta, and the private sector. Smith confirmed that the Alberta government is collaborating with the federally owned Trans Mountain Corporation and the Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corporation.

Under the current proposal, the federal and Alberta governments will serve as majority owners. Pembina is set to hold a 10 per cent stake throughout the construction phase, with an option to acquire an additional 10 per cent once the pipeline is operational. Prime Minister Carney framed the accord as a necessary step for national economic stability, stating, “This is more than just an accord. It’s also an approach that gives certainty to our businesses to build,” as noted by CBC. The involvement of Pembina Pipeline Corporation marks a notable shift toward private-sector risk-sharing, a strategy often recommended by financial analysts to mitigate the public-purse exposure that characterized the final stages of the original Trans Mountain expansion.

Political Compromise with British Columbia

Securing the deal required a delicate political maneuver involving British Columbia Premier David Eby. While B.C. has historically opposed such projects, the new agreement stipulates that the province will not challenge the federally approved pipeline in court. In exchange, the federal government has committed to funding other resource initiatives and has guaranteed that the existing ban on oil tanker traffic off the northern coast of British Columbia will remain in effect.

“It ensures that the northern tanker ban remains in place,” Eby said, according to Al Jazeera. Despite the agreement, Eby maintained a cautious stance regarding the project’s popularity within his caucus, stating, “Don’t expect me or members of my government caucus to say we like this project.” This agreement is significant because it sidesteps the protracted legal battles seen in the 2018-2020 period, where British Columbia’s provincial government actively sought to limit pipeline expansion through references to the Supreme Court of Canada regarding provincial jurisdiction over environmental regulation.

Strategic Shift Toward Asian Markets

The push for the pipeline is driven by a broader federal goal to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade. Carney emphasized the strategic importance of the Pacific Coast, describing it as the “gateway to the world’s fastest-growing markets.” By providing an alternative route for crude, officials hope to mitigate the price discounts currently applied to Canadian oil sold into the U.S. market, often referred to as the “Western Canadian Select” (WCS) differential.

Smith, who has long advocated for expanding Alberta’s energy footprint, aims to double the province’s oil production to 8 million barrels per day within the next 10 to 15 years. “The world is asking Canada to step up and provide stable, democratic and reliable energy supply that countries around the world are looking for,” Smith said, as reported by Al Jazeera. With the Trans Mountain expansion already facilitating significant crude exports to Asia since 2024, this new project signals an aggressive federal pivot toward global energy diversification. Energy market analysts have long noted that Canada’s landlocked oil production is almost entirely dependent on U.S. refineries, leaving producers vulnerable to fluctuations in U.S. demand and pipeline capacity constraints, a vulnerability this project seeks to address through direct access to deep-water ports.

Find more reporting in our Business section.