Diagnosed cases of chronic hepatitis C across the 8MM (the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and China) are projected to rise from 7.19 million in 2025 to 7.46 million by 2035, according to data from GlobalData. This annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.40 from 7.19 million in 2025 to 7.46 million cases in 2035 highlights a persistent global public health challenge, driven by aging populations and regional variations in viral genotypes.
Regional Prevalence and Growth Forecasts
The burden of chronic hepatitis C is not distributed evenly across the major markets. According to GlobalData’s report, Hepatitis C Virus: Epidemiology Forecast to 2035, China will hold the highest share of diagnosed cases, with estimates reaching 3.9 million by 2035. The United States follows with a projected 2.11 million cases, while Japan and the 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) are expected to see 767,000 and 679,000 cases, respectively.
Approximately 70% of infections lasting over six months develop into chronic hepatitis C.
The Aging Population Paradox
A notable trend identified by GlobalData epidemiologists is the inverse relationship between acute incidence and chronic prevalence in countries like Japan and Italy. While these nations report some of the lowest rates of new acute infections, they maintain high rates of chronic cases.
Alia Rafiq, a senior epidemiologist at GlobalData, attributes this to the demographic shift in these regions. “The discrepancy between low incidence rates of acute hepatitis C and high prevalence rates of chronic hepatitis C in Japan and Italy may be explained by both markets having large aging populations, which have had higher exposure to hepatitis C–related risk factors compared to new generations,” Rafiq stated.
Historical factors, such as blood transfusions administered before the implementation of universal screening, have left a legacy of infection in older cohorts. However, Rafiq noted that surveillance and improved treatment protocols in recent years have successfully curbed the spread of the virus in these markets.
Genotype 1 Dominance and Risk Factors
Clinical data indicates that genotype 1 remains the most prevalent strain of the virus across the studied markets. Its dominance is largely tied to historical transmission routes, including contaminated blood supplies and unsafe medical practices.
“Genotype 1 is a common genotype worldwide, as it was spread rapidly via contaminated blood transfusions and unsafe drug practices,” said Rafiq. “It has also been cited to be the most common genotype in people who inject drugs (PWID), who are a major at-risk group of hepatitis C.”
The high proportion of genotype 1 in the United States is particularly linked to the burden of disease within the PWID community, which remains a primary focus for public health intervention and screening efforts.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is chronic hepatitis C prevalence expected to grow by 2035?
The projected increase is driven by the long-term nature of the virus and the demographic composition of the 8MM, particularly in regions with large aging populations that were exposed to risk factors decades ago.
What is the most common genotype of hepatitis C?
Genotype 1 is the most common form of the virus globally, with high concentrations observed in the United States, often associated with historical blood transfusion practices and injection drug use.
How has blood donor screening impacted hepatitis C rates?
The introduction of mandatory hepatitis C screening for blood donors has significantly reduced the risk of post-transfusion hepatitis, helping to lower the incidence of new acute infections in modern healthcare settings.
Are you a healthcare professional or patient advocate working on viral hepatitis elimination? Share your thoughts on these projections in the comments below or subscribe to our newsletter for the latest updates in global epidemiology.
