Signs of fracturing within Iran’s leadership are emerging amid a war with the US and Israel, described by Iranian leaders as existential. Divisions between hardliners and more pragmatic factions have become apparent following a dispute over Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s pledge not to strike Gulf states.
Internal Divisions Emerge
Fissures within Iran’s ruling elite, previously suppressed under the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have become more visible since his death a week ago during the US-Israeli airstrike campaign. The ongoing strikes are placing increasing pressure on Tehran and have prompted the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to capture a larger role in strategy, despite a campaign targeting top commanders.
Sources close to Iran’s leadership, speaking anonymously, report growing strains among leading figures following a series of killings in the US-Israeli strikes. Clerics are reportedly accelerating the appointment of a new supreme leader, with a decision possible on Sunday, though it remains unclear if a successor will be able to quell factional disputes.
Succession and Potential Candidates
Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader, is considered a frontrunner, backed by the Guards and his father’s office. However, he is described as untested, junior to most senior ayatollahs, and has alienated moderates. US President Donald Trump has deemed him “unacceptable.” Other potential candidates may struggle to secure the full obedience of the Guards, which is considered vital for maintaining discipline within the system.
According to Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, “Wartime tends to clarify power structures, and in this case the decisive voice is not that of the civilian leadership but of the IRGC.”
Pezeshkian’s Position and Internal Contradictions
President Pezeshkian’s apology to Gulf states for recent attacks, and his pledge to halt further aggression, drew criticism from hardliners within the Revolutionary Guards and clerical elite, forcing him into a partial retraction. Hardline cleric and lawmaker Hamid Rasai publicly criticized Pezeshkian’s stance as “unprofessional, weak and unacceptable.” When repeating his statement, Pezeshkian omitted the apology, a move seen as an embarrassing retreat.
Even as all senior figures remain committed to defending the Islamic Republic, clear splits exist regarding strategic approach. Iran’s leadership has historically used displays of internal disagreement as a tactic in negotiations, but sources indicate the dispute over Pezeshkian’s statement revealed genuine divisions. A hardliner close to Khamenei’s office stated that Pezeshkian’s comments angered senior commanders in the Guards.
The Void Left by Khamenei
A senior Iranian source, a moderate former official, noted that no one could fully replace Khamenei, describing him as a formidable strategist. With increasing anxiety among Iran’s top ranks, senior ayatollahs are urging the clerical body responsible for appointing a supreme leader to expedite the process “so that it leads to the disappointment of the enemy and the preservation of the unity and solidarity of the nation.”
Iran’s system places an elected president, government, and parliament under the authority of a clerically appointed ayatollah who serves as supreme leader and oversees the Revolutionary Guards. Khamenei often navigated disagreements between factions while maintaining ultimate control. However, even when allowing moderate voices to prevail, hardliners were typically overruled when the system felt threatened.
Following Khamenei’s death, leadership passed to an interim council including Pezeshkian, the clerical head of the judiciary, and another cleric from the Guardian Council. Even within this council, strains are apparent, with the judiciary chief, Ayatollah Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, stating that some regional states had allowed their territory to be used for attacks, and promising “Heavy strikes on those targets will continue,” contradicting Pezeshkian’s earlier statement.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is described as Iran’s fiercest acolytes and has prompted them to seize a bigger role in strategy despite a decapitation campaign that has killed many top commanders.
Who is currently running Iran?
An interim leadership council consisting of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a Guardian Council member, are running the country.
What is the significance of the dispute over President Pezeshkian’s apology?
The dispute over President Pezeshkian’s apology to Gulf states revealed genuine divisions within Iran’s leadership between hardliners and more pragmatic factions.
Given the internal divisions and the ongoing conflict, what challenges will Iran’s next supreme leader face in maintaining stability and charting a course forward?
