The future of Cuba’s government is increasingly tied to the political fate of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. According to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal, amid the worst economic crisis Cuba has faced since the 1959 revolution, Havana has made the survival of the Maduro regime a matter of national security. The primary goal: to maintain access to Venezuelan oil, a critical resource for sustaining a collapsing economy burdened by decades of mismanagement, authoritarianism, and international isolation.
A Decades-Long Reliance
Since 1999, when Hugo Chávez began sending subsidized crude oil to the island, Cuba has become critically dependent on Venezuelan hydrocarbons. During peak periods, shipments reached around 100,000 barrels per day, a system that masked a political and repressive alliance: oil in exchange for Cuban doctors, sports trainers, and, crucially, intelligence advisors deployed in Venezuela.
Shrinking Lifeline
Today, that flow has decreased to approximately 30,000 barrels daily—roughly 40% of Cuba’s energy imports—leaving the Havana regime in a precarious position. Domestic oil production is insufficient, and alternative supplies from countries like Mexico or Russia are inadequate to meet demand, exacerbating power outages, shortages, and a decline in living conditions.
Cuban Support for Maduro
To maintain this interconnected relationship, the Cuban dictatorship has deepened its political, military, and intelligence support for the Maduro regime, helping to shield it from internal threats and popular discontent. Cuban intelligence agents remain in Venezuela and have played a decisive role in purging military officials and functionaries suspected of disloyalty, consolidating an internal control system that protects the Venezuelan leader.
“With Maduro, the Cuban intelligence services multiplied. Every Cuban was spying on you,” stated Andrés Izarra, a former Venezuelan minister now in exile, as quoted by The Wall Street Journal.
U.S. Pressure and Economic Strain
The tightening of the U.S. embargo and sanctions has significantly reduced oil shipments from Venezuela to Cuba, worsening fuel shortages and deepening the energy crisis on the island. The Wall Street Journal reported that a partial blockade affects vessels sanctioned for transporting around 70% of Venezuelan crude. The seizure of a tanker carrying nearly two million barrels by U.S. authorities dealt a direct blow to Cuba’s ability to sustain its already collapsing energy system.
A Deepening Crisis
Cuban dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel reacted to these actions by denouncing them before the Central Committee of the Communist Party, labeling the seizure of the Venezuelan tanker an act of “piracy” and accusing the United States of acting “without rules.”
Cuba is acutely aware that a complete or drastic reduction in oil shipments from Venezuela would have devastating consequences. “It would be the collapse of the Cuban economy, there is no doubt about that,” warned Jorge Piñón, a Cuban exile and researcher of the energy ties between Havana and Caracas at the University of Texas at Austin.
The economic downturn is already manifesting in one of the largest exoduses in Cuba’s recent history. The Cuban economy has contracted by 15% since 2018, and accumulated inflation is nearing 450%, according to economist Ricardo Torres Pérez of American University in Washington. The Cuban peso has plummeted to around 450 per dollar on the informal market, compared to 30 pesos in 2020.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary reason Cuba is concerned about the situation in Venezuela?
Cuba is concerned about the situation in Venezuela because it relies on Venezuelan oil to sustain its economy, with current shipments representing approximately 40% of its energy imports.
What role does Cuba play in supporting the Maduro regime?
Cuba provides political, military, and intelligence support to the Maduro regime, including deploying intelligence advisors to Venezuela to help suppress dissent and maintain control.
What impact is U.S. policy having on this relationship?
The tightening of the U.S. embargo and sanctions has reduced oil shipments from Venezuela to Cuba, exacerbating the economic crisis on the island and increasing pressure on both regimes.
As the flow of Venezuelan oil diminishes, what steps might Cuba take to mitigate the economic fallout, and how might this impact its political stability?
