The Northern Chill: Why Canadian Traffic is Cooling in North Dakota & Beyond
Grand Forks, North Dakota, and other border states are experiencing a noticeable decline in Canadian visitors, impacting local businesses and tourism. The trend, which began to accelerate in 2025, shows no immediate signs of reversal, leaving business owners and tourism officials searching for solutions.
The Numbers Tell the Story
The Pembina border crossing, a key entry point for Canadian travelers, saw a significant drop in passenger traffic. In 2025, the port recorded 202,077 fewer passengers compared to 2024, totaling 376,905 – the lowest number since 2022. January 2026 continued this pattern, with 8,904 crossings, significantly down from over 12,000 in January 2025 and 2024. This decline translates to an estimated $41.3 million in lost visitor spending for North Dakota as of October 2025, according to state tourism officials.
Happy Harry’s and the Manitoba Plate Watch
Greg Rixen, general manager of Happy Harry’s in Grand Forks, has been a keen observer of Canadian traffic for years. He’s noticed a clear shift in the number of Manitoba license plates around town. “You go to Target on a Saturday or Sunday morning and it wouldn’t be odd to witness one out of three cars with Manitoba plates on it. Now it might be one out of 10,” Rixen stated. He estimates that 3-5% of Happy Harry’s business comes from Canadian customers, and a recent dip in penny wine sales has been attributed to the reduction in Canadian shoppers.
Beyond North Dakota: A Wider Trend
The impact isn’t limited to North Dakota. Las Vegas has reported a 30% decline in Canadian visitors, and the housing market in Mesa, Arizona, is experiencing a downturn as Canadians sell properties and return home. A recent survey revealed that 43% of Canadians are less inclined to visit the U.S.
The Canadian Dollar’s Role
Exchange rates play a crucial role. Barry Wilfahrt, President of the Grand Forks Chamber, points to the historical correlation between the Canadian and U.S. Dollars. When the Canadian dollar falls below 85-80 cents against the U.S. Dollar, traffic from Manitoba noticeably decreases. Currently, the Canadian dollar trades at roughly $1.30 USD, meaning it’s worth only 70 cents in the U.S.
Political and Economic Factors
While the exchange rate is a significant factor, other elements are likely at play. The decline in Canadian traffic has been noticeable for over a decade, with a peak in the summers of 2012, 2013, and 2014. Some speculate that the trading and political climate between the two nations contributes to the trend.
What’s Being Done?
Businesses are exploring potential solutions, such as offering the Canadian dollar at par, a strategy that saw success with over 15,000 Canadian visitors to Las Vegas casinos during a recent promotion. However, marketing efforts directly aimed at Canadian consumers are currently considered ineffective. The 2026 North Dakota Travel Industry Conference will address these challenges, bringing together state leaders to discuss potential strategies.
A Glimmer of Hope?
The recent cessation of reciprocal tariffs offers a potential turning point. Rixen has observed a slight increase in Canadian visitors in early March, though statistical evidence is still emerging. He hopes February border crossing numbers will show at least a stabilization of the decline.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the biggest factor driving the decline in Canadian visitors?
A: The exchange rate between the Canadian and U.S. Dollar is a major factor, but political and economic conditions also play a role.
Q: Is this decline affecting only North Dakota?
A: No, other states like Nevada and Arizona are also experiencing a decrease in Canadian tourism.
Q: What are businesses doing to address the situation?
A: Some businesses are considering offering the Canadian dollar at par, while others are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach.
Q: When did this trend begin?
A: While fluctuations have occurred, the decline has been noticeable for over a decade, with a significant acceleration beginning in 2025.
Did you know? The peak years for Canadian border crossings at Pembina were 2012, 2013, and 2014, with over 130,000 passengers crossing in August of each year.
Pro Tip: Businesses reliant on Canadian tourism should closely monitor exchange rates and consider targeted promotions when the Canadian dollar is more favorable.
Stay informed about the latest developments in North Dakota tourism and economic trends. Read more at the Grand Forks Herald.
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