Nations across the Indo-Pacific are adopting “double hedging” strategies to navigate the dual pressures of China’s regional expansion and the unpredictable foreign policy trajectory of the Trump administration. According to regional policy analysis, countries are increasingly prioritizing local agency and bilateral security pacts to compensate for waning confidence in traditional US alliance structures and the potential for a US-China power-sharing arrangement.
The Shift in Indo-Pacific Strategic Realignment
For nearly a generation, Australian foreign policy leaned heavily on the US alliance. That balance is shifting. As China demonstrates its reach—most notably through recent missile tests in the South Pacific—regional neighbors are moving to secure their own interests. Japan and the Philippines have voiced long-standing concerns regarding China’s territorial ambitions, while Vietnam remains in a state of cautious observation.
The impact of US international conduct during the second Trump term has been felt across the region. US-imposed tariffs have strained local economies, and intensified tensions with Iran have contributed to rising fuel costs. While core US alliance structures in East Asia remain intact, there is growing anxiety that the administration’s skepticism toward NATO could eventually extend to Pacific partners, or worse, lead to a bilateral deal between Washington and Beijing that sidelines regional stakeholders.
Did you know? The strategic term “Indo-Pacific” was first mooted by the late Japanese Prime Minister Abe in 2007. While the US adopted the terminology during the first Trump administration, references to the region have significantly diminished during the current term, with the US Pacific Command dropping the “Indo” prefix from its title.
Deterioration of US-India Strategic Ties
The strategic partnership between the US and India, which flourished following a 2008 nuclear fuel treaty, has cooled significantly since 2025. Two rounds of US tariffs and a perceived tilt toward Pakistan following border clashes in May 2025 have strained the relationship. Consequently, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD)—comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia—has lost its mojo.
With the US focus narrowing to the “First Island Chain” (running through Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines), other parts of the Indo-Pacific are being left to fend for themselves. In Southeast Asia, particularly in regional hubs like Indonesia and Singapore, the US is increasingly viewed as “missing-in-action.”
Japan and India Fill the Security Vacuum
As US engagement fluctuates, Japan and India are stepping forward as regional stabilizing forces. Japan currently holds the highest diplomatic standing among ASEAN partners. Recent diplomatic efforts have seen Japan mend historical ties with South Korea and strengthen investment and defense cooperation with India, underscored by Prime Minister Takaichi’s July visit to India.
India, meanwhile, has moved from a “Look East” to an “Act East” policy. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s July visit to Indonesia, the two nations finalized an agreement for the sale of Indian missile systems. These bilateral moves signal a transition toward regional self-reliance, with major powers taking responsibility for their own security architecture.
Australia’s New Defense and Security Network
Australia is actively diversifying its security portfolio to address strategic uncertainties. Recent months have seen a flurry of treaty signings that solidify Australia’s presence in the Pacific and Southeast Asia:
- Indonesia: The “Australia-Indonesia Treaty on Common Security” was revived in February 2026.
- Papua New Guinea: A mutual defense treaty was signed in October 2025.
- Pacific Islands: New security agreements have been finalized with Fiji, Vanuatu, Tuvalu, and Nauru, with others in development for the Solomons, Tonga, and Samoa.
During his July visit to Australia, Prime Minister Modi also finalized an export agreement for uranium and a joint declaration on defense and security. These steps represent a clear move away from total reliance on the US, favoring a web of local defense agreements that provide more immediate security guarantees.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the “Indo-Pacific” term significant?
The term is a strategic construct that acknowledges the interconnectedness of South Asia and the Indian Ocean. A decline in its usage by US officials suggests a potential retreat from a broad regional security focus.
What is “double hedging”?
It is a diplomatic strategy where nations protect themselves against two distinct risks simultaneously: the expansionist goals of a dominant power (China) and the volatility or unreliability of a traditional ally (the United States).
Are these regional treaties a replacement for the US alliance?
Regional nations are building “strategic agency” to ensure they are not left vulnerable should the US further reduce its commitment to the region.
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