Early voting data from Virginia suggests Democrats are currently favored in their effort to enact a redistricting plan that could result in as many as four additional seats in the US House of Representatives this fall.
Virginia Redistricting: A Democratic Advantage?
Groups supporting the redistricting measure had identified Saturday, April 11, as a key date, coinciding with the opening of additional early voting sites in several heavily populated, Democratic-leaning counties in Northern Virginia.
The upcoming referendum carries significant weight for the fall midterms, given the current razor-thin House majority and a broader national battle over redistricting initiated last year at the behest of President Donald Trump.
House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned alongside Virginia Republicans whose districts would be significantly altered should the referendum pass. Shortly after, Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries rallied supporters in Richmond, demonstrating the high stakes and aggressive engagement from both parties.
According to data from L2, nearly 63,000 early in-person votes were cast on Saturday, slightly exceeding the equivalent day during last fall’s election, when Democrats won all three statewide offices.
This year’s early vote data indicates a stronger Democratic lean and greater concentration of votes in Northern Virginia. Turnout in Northern Virginia was approximately 46% higher than the same date last year, with roughly 57% of the statewide vote originating from the region, an increase from 41% in the previous year.
Saturday’s early vote data showed partisan turnout across all voting methods remaining largely unchanged from the equivalent point last year, when Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the state’s gubernatorial race by 15 points.
Democratic primary participants currently hold an 8-point lead in early in-person and mail-in turnout over their Republican counterparts.
Despite strong turnout in Northern Virginia on Saturday, the region accounts for the entirety of the shortfall in early votes compared to 2025. While the rest of the state has cast approximately 5,000 more votes than at this point in 2025, Northern Virginia is lagging behind its 2025 turnout by about 39,000 votes.
CNN’s analysis suggests this difference is linked to changes in early voting access. Early voting access in Northern Virginia has been reduced for much of the final three weeks before Election Day compared to 2025, potentially suppressing pre-election turnout in the region. For example, Prince William County had only one voting location open the week of April 11, compared to six during the same week last year. Fairfax County expanded from three to 16 locations two days earlier last year than this year.
Voters in Northern Virginia impacted by reduced access may shift their participation to Election Day. However, even if turnout in that area falls short of last year’s totals, opponents of the redistricting measure face an uphill battle.
Opponents of the measure would need to significantly outperform Republicans from last year’s election to overcome a 15-point statewide deficit established by Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears.
The “No” campaign has been outspent and faces an electoral climate that has generally favored Democratic causes. A win, or even a close loss, would be unexpected given current national trends.
A strongly motivated Democratic base, coupled with persuasion efforts among independent and Republican voters, has contributed to consistently strong Democratic performances in elections since Donald Trump’s return to the White House. A similar redistricting effort in California passed by 29 points last November, exceeding Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ 2024 margin in that state by nine points.
A recent poll from the Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School indicated that Republicans are more motivated to vote, with Republicans being about 7 points more likely than Democrats to express certainty about voting. Despite this, likely voters in the poll supported the amendment to redraw the state’s districts by a 5-point margin.
The Post-Schar poll also found that political independents favor the measure, with limited defections among partisans and partisan-leaners.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is at stake with this referendum?
The referendum concerns a proposed redistricting plan that could result in Democrats gaining as many as four US House seats in Virginia this fall.
How does early voting data look so far?
Early voting data suggests Democrats have an advantage, with increased turnout in Northern Virginia and a slight overall increase in early in-person votes compared to last year.
What challenges do opponents of the redistricting measure face?
Opponents face a significant fundraising disadvantage, an electorate currently favoring Democratic causes, and would need to substantially outperform Republicans from last year’s election to succeed.
As Virginia voters prepare to head to the polls, will the current trends in early voting translate into a significant shift in the balance of power in the state’s congressional districts?
