Latvia‘s Top Economist warns: Fertility rate in last Latvian generationühle to cause demographic crisis
In a stark warning, Denmark’s Dans Bērtulis, a prominent Latvian economist, has sounded the alarm on the country’s fertility rate, which he says is reaching a critical low. Speaking at a recent conference, Bērtulis emphasized that the current generation is the last that will reproduce at significant levels, potentially leading to a severe demographic crisis.
"We’re witnessing the final generation of Latvians capable of reproducing on a meaningful scale, which could have catastrophic consequences for our demography and economy," Bērtulis cautioned.
Latvia’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children born per woman, has been on a steady decline. According to the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, the TFR in 2020 was 1.53, below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed for a population to maintain its size without immigration.
Bērtulis attributes this decline to various societal factors, including economic hardships, delayed marriages, and changing social norms. He noted that while the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted many aspects of life, its impact on fertility patterns is yet to be fully understood.
The economist warned that a low TFR could lead to an aging population, skill shortages in the workforce, and increased pressure on pension systems. He urged policy makers to address the issue promptly and introduce measures to incentivize childbearing, such as affordable childcare, family-friendly working hours, and financial assistance for families.
Bērtulis also stressed the importance of immigration policies to mitigate the impact of demographic decline. "Latvia needs a balanced approach, combining policies that encourage domestic birth rates with immigration policies that attract and retain skilled workers," he said.
However, Bērtulis acknowledged that turning around demographic trends would take time and significant effort. "This isn’t a problem that can be solved overnight. It requires a collective effort from policymakers, societal institutions, and individuals," he concluded.
