A stronger El Niño weather system is taking hold, threatening India’s monsoon and bringing forecasts of hotter, drier conditions across much of the world, according to weather experts and new World Meteorological Organization data released on Friday.
WMO Forecasts Supercharged El Niño and Global Temperature Rises
The El Niño weather system will strengthen from August to October, bringing higher temperatures globally alongside increasing rainfall in some regions and drought in others, according to forecasts released by the World Meteorological Organization on Friday. While past El Niño years varied in severity, scientists warn this year’s system is supercharged by the climate crisis. Warmer waters have arrived earlier than usual with temperatures still climbing, leading experts to predict a significantly stronger and more intense weather system than normal, though the WMO does not use the term “super El Niño.” Marine heatwaves have already shocked scientists this year and are set to intensify, with WMO data showing temperatures are likely to exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius above normal in several regions.
Regional Impacts: Drought and Monsoon Risks
Indian farmers rely on the seasonal monsoon for rain, but the new forecast shows an enhancement in the probability for below-normal rainfall, creating increased risks of drought, floods, and wildfires across the Indian Ocean basin. Beyond South Asia, drier conditions are likely across parts of equatorial Africa to the west of the Horn of Africa, the south and east of Australia, large parts of South America, and North America. Conversely, higher-than-normal rainfall is expected in southern Europe, central Asia, the Horn of Africa, and southeastern South America. This extreme weather compounds a punishing summer that has already featured record-breaking heatwaves beginning in May in the UK, alongside destructive wildfires across France and Spain that displaced hundreds of thousands of people.
UN Secretary-General Warns of Uncharted Territory
UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters in New York on Friday that the developing climate pattern is already driving severe impacts worldwide. “Two months ago, I warned that El Niño was arriving on our doorstep. Now it is inside the house, and turning up the heat,” Guterres said. He noted that Pacific waters driving the system have never been this warm this early in an El Niño cycle, adding that temperatures are still increasing. “This year risks shattering every seasonal record, and driving even more severe effects worldwide. We are in uncharted territory,” Guterres said, specifically highlighting growing dangers to the global workforce as rising heat claims lives on a growing scale across every region.
Did You Know? El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo noted that while forecasts track these hazards, governments and communities must use this window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the strengthened El Niño peak?
According to World Meteorological Organization forecasts released on Friday, the El Niño system will strengthen from August to October.
Which regions face the highest risk of drought?
The WMO highlights an increased probability of below-normal rainfall and drought around the Indian Ocean basin, affecting India’s monsoon, alongside drier conditions in parts of equatorial Africa, Australia, South America, and North America.
What are the primary drivers behind this year’s intense weather?
According to scientists and UN officials, warmer ocean waters arrived earlier than usual, supercharging the El Niño system against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures driven by the climate crisis.
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